United States now projected to suffer 147,000 coronavirus deaths by August
The United States is now projected to suffer 147,000 deaths by early August, according to a concerning model that has been repeatedly used by the White HOuse.
New projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) at the University of Washington show an increase in about 12,000 US deaths after it predicted the country’s death toll would be 135,000 earlier this month.
The troubling new forecast comes as states are easing social distancing guidelines and reopening some businesses, which has caused increased mobility in communities around the country that may lead to a surge in the outbreak that has already killed over 82,000 nationwide.
‘When we started off making projections, we had assumed that all the states were going to follow the New Zealand model, which is to keep social distancing in place until transmission gets to a really low leve,’ IMHE director Dr Christopher Murray told CNN.
‘We’re not doing that. We’re speeding towards relaxing social distancing…And I think we’ll see the numbers go up unless we see the benefits of people being cautious, wearing masks and capacities to test, contact trace and isolate go up faster than we think they may.’
The dire model mirrors warnings made by federal health officials who testified before a Senate panel on Tuesday about the dangers of reopening the country too quickly.
Dr Anthony Fauci, the country’s leading infectious disease expert and member of the White House coronavirus task force, testified that the outbreak is not ‘completely under control’ as he spoke to the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee on Tuesday via video call.
Fauci, who has recently self-isolated after two White House aides tested positive for the virus, added that ‘there is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control’ if states disregarded federal reopening guidelines.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has repeatedly disagreed with IHME projections. After 135,000 coronavirus deaths were predicted earlier this month, the president said, ‘First of all, these models have been wrong from day one,’ when asked about the model by ABC’s David Muir.
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