Big 12 MBB power rankings: Arizona back on top, Iowa State jumps as firing season begins (Kansas State will have company)
Welcome to the Hotline’s Big 12 men’s basketball power rankings, a weekly assessment of the conference using analytics and common sense, with a strand of pasta occasionally heaved at the wall when mayhem is rampant. The power rankings will be published each Tuesday through the end of the regular season. (Here is last week’s edition.)
Jerome Tang became the Big 12’s first unemployed basketball coach of 2026 when Kansas State announced Sunday evening that it had fired him for cause.
He won’t be the last out the door. But with three weeks remaining in the regular season, it’s unclear whether just one school will follow Kansas State’s path or a handful will initiate coaching changes.
Basketball matters more to the Big 12 than it does to most major football-playing conferences. Over the next month, we’ll find out how much. Six coaches across the conference could become candidates for termination, but only Arizona State’s Bobby Hurley seems destined for dismissal.
Hurley is in the final year of his contract, his team is struggling (again), and his recent mea culpa — “We don’t give our fans any reason to show up with enthusiasm” — indicated Hurley knows the bell is set to toll.
Five more could be safe or sorry: Baylor’s Scott Drew, Colorado’s Tad Boyle, Cincinnati’s Wes Miller, UCF’s Johnny Dawkins and TCU’s Jamie Dixon.
All five could return, or the majority could be fired. Everything depends on how their teams perform down the stretch and how their campuses assess the cost of a coaching change.
Every dollar spent buying out a contract for the men’s basketball coach — every dollar spent hiring a replacement (and his staff) — is a dollar the school and its donors could be spending on football.
On revenue sharing and third-party NIL opportunities.
On facilities and recruiting and support staff.
On retaining or dismissing the football coach.
On retaining or dismissing the coordinators.
The calculations vary by the campus.
Drew won a national championship five years ago, but Baylor has regressed steadily and is currently closer to the bottom of the Big 12 than the top. Will the Bears make a move knowing they might have to dismiss football coach Dave Aranda next fall?
Boyle has a 7-26 record in conference play since Colorado joined the Big 12. But the Buffaloes aren’t supported at the level needed to materially change their trajectory — not with so much time, attention and cash directed at Deion Sanders’ football program. If CU were to let Boyle go after 16 seasons, would his successor fare any better?
Miller isn’t as likely as Hurley to be handed his termination papers, but he’s close — much closer, it seems, than Boyle, Drew, Dixon or Dawkins. The Bearcats failed to qualify for the NCAA Tournament in his first four seasons and are weeks away from yet another whiff.
But Cincinnati, too, must be mindful of football expenditures. Coach Scott Satterfield appeared to climb off the hot seat last fall, only to finish his fourth season with a five-game losing streak and then watch his quarterback, Brendan Sorsby, transfer to Texas Tech.
We expect the Bearcats to join Kansas State in the market for a new coach.
Arizona State, too.
Whether the damage is contained to those three schools hinges on how well TCU, Baylor, Colorado and UCF perform on the court and how willing the schools are to redirect precious cash away from football.
Even in a conference that takes immense pride in basketball, the schools cannot afford to limit the resources plowed into football.
To the power rankings …
(Records and NET rankings through Monday)
1. Arizona (23-2/10-2)
Results: lost to Texas Tech 78-75
NET ranking: No. 3
Comment: The Wildcats understand better than anyone the elevated risk that comes with being a No. 2 seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, compared to being a No. 1. And with two or three more losses, they could meet the fate they hoped to avoid. (Previous: 2)
2. Iowa State (23-3/10-3)
Results: lost at TCU 62-55, beat Kansas 74-56 and Houston 70-67
NET ranking: No. 5
Comment: Look who’s in play for a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs after 72 glorious hours in Hilton Coliseum. There’s little time to celebrate, however. The Cyclones head to Provo this weekend to face an opponent they could not stop in two games last season. (Previous: 4)
3. Houston (23-3/11-2)
Results: won at Utah 66-52, beat Kansas State 78-64, lost at Iowa State 70-67
NET ranking: No. 6
Comment: The Cougars were in control Monday night with a 63-53 lead but scored just four points in the final seven minutes as the offense stalled. We can envision that same scenario causing their demise in the NCAAs. (Previous: 1)
4. Texas Tech (19-6/9-3)
Results: beat Colorado 78-44, won at Arizona 78-75
NET ranking: No. 16
Comment: No team in the country has a better collection of three wins than the Red Raiders, who have beaten Arizona in Tucson, Duke in New York City and Houston in Lubbock. (Previous: 5)
5. Kansas (19-6/9-3)
Results: lost at Iowa State 74-56
NET ranking: No. 14
Comment: The Jayhawks are as good as anyone on defense but struggle to score efficiently. If only they had a perimeter player capable of getting anywhere he wants on the court at any time, against anyone. (Previous: 3)
6. BYU (19-6/7-5)
Results: won at Baylor 99-94, beat Colorado 90-86 (OT)
NET ranking: No. 20
Comment: How will the Cougars fill the 18-points-per-game void created by Richie Saunders’ season-ending injury? The answer is easy, the execution isn’t: A few more baskets per game from a handful of rotation players and better defense from everyone. (Previous: 6)
7. UCF (17-7/6-6)
Results: lost to West Virginia 74-67
NET ranking: No. 49
Comment: The Knights have lost three in a row and five of their past eight. On the Hotline, we call that Johnny Dawkins-ing. Can they change trajectories? Consider us skeptical. (Previous: 7)
8. TCU (16-9/6-6)
Results: beat Iowa State 62-55, won at Oklahoma State 95-92 (OT)
NET ranking: No. 45
Comment: If you’re looking for a sleeper team to sneak into the NCAA Tournament field, consider the Horned Frogs, who have momentum, two marquee wins (Florida and Iowa State) and a manageable upcoming schedule. (Previous: 10)
9. West Virginia (16-9/7-5)
Results: won at UCF 74-67
NET ranking: No. 54
Comment: Oddly enough, the Mountaineers have not won or lost more than two games in a row since the middle of November, but they have a chance to stack victories with a favorable combination of opponents down the stretch. (Previous: 12)
10. Baylor (13-12/3-9)
Results: lost to BYU 99-94 and Louisville 82-71
NET ranking: No. 46
Comment: The Bears have dropped three in a row, seven of their past nine and 10 of 13. That’s bad math for Scott Drew. But it might not be bad enough, yet. (Previous: 8)
11. Colorado (14-12/4-9)
Results: lost at Texas Tech 78-44 and BYU 90-86 (OT)
NET ranking: No. 73
Comment: Another factor to consider in Tad Boyle’s fate: The Buffaloes have a new athletic director, Fernando Lovo, who was recently hired from New Mexico. Hard to believe he would have accepted the job without the authority to make a coaching change. (Previous: 9)
12. Oklahoma State (16-9/4-8)
Results: lost at Arizona State 85-76 and to TCU 95-92 (OT)
NET ranking: No. 72
Comment: The overtime gut punch was the Cowboys’ second three-point loss to TCU of the season and blocks their most reasonable path to a .500 record in conference play. (Previous: 11)
13. Cincinnati (14-12/6-7)
Results: won at Kansas State 91-62, beat Utah 69-65
NET ranking: No. 63
Comment: Teams either get better or worse in February. The Bearcats are getting better, and their success has come at the expense of teams (UCF, Kansas State, Utah) that are getting worse. (Previous: 13)
14. Arizona State (13-12/4-8)
Results: beat Oklahoma State 85-76
NET ranking: No. 71
Comment: To secure a winning record for what could be Bobby Hurley’s final season, the Sun Devils must win four of their last six. The opponents include Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State. (Previous: 14)
15. Kansas State (10-15/1-11)
Results: lost to Cincinnati 91-62 and at Houston 78-64
NET ranking: No. 100
Comment: Jerome Tang’s blistering, inappropriate critique of his players didn’t cause his termination. It merely expedited the process. Did it save the Wildcats some cash by offering a reason to fire him for cause? That’s for the attorneys to determine. (Previous: 15)
16. Utah (9-16/1-11)
Results: lost to Houston 66-52 and at Cincinnati 69-65
NET ranking: No. 129
Comment: It could be worse (believe it or not). At least the Utes are competitive. (Previous: 16)
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