Is Las Vegas still a gambler’s best bet?
Experts, executives and publicly available data all suggest that the gambling landscape has shifted in recent years, and it would be hard to make the case that those changes have been in the players’ favor.
David Danzis | Las Vegas Review-Journal (TNS)
Las Vegas has always been a gambler’s paradise, and smart money says it will stay that way as long as planes full of visitors continue to land at Harry Reid International Airport.
But does that mean Sin City is still a gambler’s best bet?
The answer to that question depends on a lot of variables, most notably where one decides to gamble and what type of game they choose to play. Experts, executives and publicly available data all suggest that the gambling landscape has shifted in recent years, and it would be hard to make the case that those changes have been in the players’ favor.
According to University of Nevada-Las Vegas’ Center for Gaming Research, the number of table games and slot machines on the Las Vegas Strip have decreased in the last decade, while gross gaming revenue for both segments has steadily increased (except in 2020, which was impacted by COVID-19 casino closures). The same is true for casinos in downtown Las Vegas, along the Boulder Highway corridor and across the entire state of Nevada.
“I believe that at this moment, we have gone sideways a little bit,” said John Mehaffey, co-founder of VegasAdvantage.com and a self-described player advocate. “In the last year or so it’s stabilized, but there was a huge crash in front of it.”
Mehaffey is referring to an industry-wide trend toward less “player-friendly” conditions. His website, which he co-owns with his wife Kristina, tracks the number and types of games offered at casinos all over Las Vegas.
Casino table games such as 6:5 blackjack, triple-zero roulette and crapless craps are becoming more commonplace on The Strip, as are high-volatility side and prop bets, such as the All-Tall-Small at a craps table. They all have an increased house edge compared to their more traditional counterparts.
For example, the house edge in 3:2 blackjack is around 0.5 percent (depending on specific game rules) while the casino enjoys a 2 percent edge on 6:5 blackjack. A pass line bet without odds in traditional craps has a hold (the amount of money won by the casino) of roughly 1.41 percent. For the same bet on a crapless craps table, the casino hold percentage jumps to 5.38 percent.
Gamblers on The Strip also have to be aware of table minimums that are almost always higher than those found at off-Strip, downtown or locals casinos.
Slot and video poker players don’t have it much better. Penny slots — a favorite of budget-conscious gamblers — have a lower return-to-player percentage than higher denominations, while many video poker machines are paying out less on winning hands now than they did just a year or two ago.
Taken together, this all creates a less-favorable environment for gamblers.
Changes have been happening slowly
Long-time bettors, advantage players and frequent visitors to Las Vegas casinos have likely noticed these “house-friendly” game rules and game variants, but, even as savvy as they are, they may not recognize the extent of the shifting conditions.
Anthony Lucas, a professor of casino management at UNLV’s Harrah College of Hospitality, said that while the changes are noticeable today, they have actually been slowly happening for several years.
“Generally (speaking), it hasn’t been anything abrupt but, over the last 15 years or so, it’s been a nick here, a nick there, and we’ve come to this place where we are now,” he said.
Mehaffey and Lucas both pointed out that table games with more traditional rules can still be found in every casino on The Strip — in the high-limit rooms.
While a cynic might come to the conclusion that casino companies are just trying to squeeze out every last dollar they can from players, Lucas said that’s not what is happening here. By offering different games at various price points, casinos are trying to cater to a wider demographic of guests.
“I don’t think anyone is trying to gouge the customer. (Casinos) would have long-term concerns about that,” Lucas said. “It’s more, I think, that they’re just trying to accommodate different inventories of betters.”
The gambling experts also noted that value can still be found in Las Vegas casinos on The Strip, if one knows where to look. Treasure Island casino-hotel, for example, has a single-zero roulette game on its main casino floor.
Certain off-Strip casinos, such as Ellis Island and South Point, offer $5 minimums for table games depending on business volumes.
Downtown casinos being more ‘player friendly’ isn’t by accident
But the best bang-for-the-buck for most gamblers visiting Las Vegas is found downtown, where landmark properties such as Binion’s, Four Queens and The Plaza offer many more “player-friendly” games than those found on The Strip.
Jonathan Jossel, chief executive officer of The Plaza casino-hotel, said that is not by accident.
“I think the perception for downtown (Las Vegas) has always been a better value, and specifically for The Plaza, that’s what we wanted to speak to, and we found a way to still make it work,” he said. “There’s a feeling (downtown) that we don’t have to be killing everyone.”
The strategy for the downtown Las Vegas casinos seems to be paying off, literally. Gambling revenue reported by the downtown operators has increased each year since 2013 (except in 2020), according to public data. Collectively, the downtown casinos generated more than $909.5 million in revenue in 2023, up from nearly $501 million a decade earlier.
Jossel said that while it is true most casinos are shifting toward playing conditions that are more advantageous to the house, customers are more aware today thanks to the internet and social media, so people are identifying the best places to gamble and the most favorable ways to play. He said it’s important that operators and players each identify what works best for them, emphasizing that there’s not a one-size-fits-all approach.
“It’s actually a tricky place to be because you don’t necessarily want to attract all the savvy people out there,” he said. “You want to be a place that appeals to everyone, really. (But) players should do what’s best for them.”
As much as the casinos downtown have benefited from appealing to a wider segment of gamblers, operators on The Strip have little reason to change their tactics. Since 2013, Las Vegas casinos on The Strip have seen gross gaming revenues go from $6.5 billion to more than $8.9 billion last year.
Even with two Strip casinos shutting down this year — the Tropicana casino-hotel closed in April and the Mirage casino-hotel closed on July 17 — there is little reason to expect gaming revenue to take a hit. As such, experts are less-than-confident a return to “player-friendly” conditions is coming anytime soon.
“Overall, I am extremely pessimistic,” Mehaffey said, before adding that barring a “complete, total, catastrophic meltdown,” Las Vegas casinos aren’t likely to loosen up. “I think overall, we’re going to be where we are at least for a long time, and maybe things will slightly get worse.”
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