Pac-12 bowl projections: Utah and Oregon jump into the CFP while WSU qualifies for the Independence

The Pac-12 has remained intact in one significant regard for the next two seasons. Unless they qualify for the College Football Playoff, all bowl-eligible former Pac-12 teams will participate in the bowl games affiliated with the conference in recent years.

Binding contracts and complicated logistics forced the schools, despite their official divorce, to share custody of the Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence Bowls.

There is one notable change to the selection process — actually, two notable changes:

— Expansion of the College Football Playoff creates the potential for more than one of the 12 teams to qualify for the sport’s biggest event, thereby opening opportunities for the non-playoff teams to participate in more prestigious bowls than they otherwise might.

— Before the Pac-12 crumbled, conference record was used to determine the selection hierarchy. But because the 12 teams will be scattered across four leagues in the upcoming season (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12), overall records will dictate which teams go where.

Presenting our fearless bowl projections.

(Non-qualifiers: Arizona State, Oregon State, Stanford and UCLA.)

College Football Playoff
Team: Utah (automatic qualifier/Big 12 champion)
Comment: The Utes return many of their core pieces and, crucially, possess a manageable schedule. If they finish with one or two losses and no conference title, the at-large path in the CFP would be available. That said, we view them as the team to beat in the Big 12 as long as quarterback Cam Rising remains healthy. It would be quite the achievement to celebrate Kyle Whittingham’s 20th (and perhaps final) season.

College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (at-large berth/Big Ten runner-up)
Comment: Expectations are such that not making the CFP would be considered a major disappointment for Dan Lanning and Co. The Ducks could earn the Big Ten’s automatic bid by winning the conference, which would probably require them to beat Ohio State in the title game. The teams play Oct. 12 in Eugene, so a victory would widen Oregon’s path into the CFP but perhaps make a second win over the Buckeyes — in a road atmosphere in Indianapolis — more unlikely.

Alamo Bowl
Team: USC (vs. Big 12)
Comment: The Hotline does not expect a high-level season from USC, not given a schedule that includes LSU, Notre Dame, Michigan and Penn State. Seven wins feels reasonable. Maybe eight. But the Alamo would jump at the chance to take the Trojans for the first time in the bowl’s history. And considering the longstanding aversion to repeat participants, the Alamo likely would avoid Arizona at (almost) all costs.

Holiday Bowl
Team: Arizona (vs. ACC)
Comment: As in the past, protections are built into the Pac-12 selection process: One team can leap another team as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in overall record. That policy could come into play with the Wildcats if they have a slightly better overall record than Colorado, which would be more attractive to bowl officials because of Deion Sanders. If the Wildcats are 8-4 and the Buffs are 6-6, the former would have priority.

Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Colorado (vs. SEC)
Comment: To be clear: We do not expect Colorado’s season to reach the success typically associated with Las Vegas Bowl participants (i.e., eight or nine wins). But our skeptical outlook for the schools in their new leagues — and for the Cougars and Beavers — means mediocre teams will overachieve with bowl assignments. And if the Buffs are eligible, they will be coveted.

Sun Bowl
Team: Washington (vs. ACC)
Comment: The Huskies might prove the postseason antithesis of Colorado — a team invited with reluctance, not enthusiasm. Why? Because anything short of a return to the playoff will be viewed as a letdown for UW fans and potentially temper ticket purchases and hotel bookings. But the selection protection mentioned above still applies: There’s only so far the Huskies could fall.

LA Bowl
Team: Cal (vs. Mountain West)
Comment: We foresee a mediocre season with the Bears topping out at six wins and landing on the bottom tier of bowl assignments. The Independence won’t want them, not after the 34-14 clunker in Shreveport last season. And the LA Bowl might jump at the chance because Cal won’t have made an appearance in Southern California, where it has thousands of alumni, during the regular season.

Independence Bowl
Team: Washington State (vs. Army)
Comment: The Cougars and Beavers will be feel-good stories if either qualifies for the postseason. We give WSU a substantially better chance than OSU to win six games, largely because of coaching continuity and a more manageable schedule. But any bowl appearance (for either school) would make for a successful year in their precarious existence.

*** Previously published content on the 2024 season

ACC projections
Big 12 projections
Big Ten projections
Mountain West projections
My AP Top 25 ballot
Analyzing the Big 12 schedule
Your guide to CFP (and other) changes

Note: In keeping with past practice, the Hotline will publish Pac-12 bowl projections weekly throughout the season.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline