1st-and-10: Matt Eberflus' seat not as hot as you think
Bears coach Matt Eberflus enters the 2024 regular season as the co-favorite (+800) with the Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh for the NFL Coach of the Year Award. And at the same time, he’s tied with the Jets’ Robert Saleh for the third on the board (+700) to be the first coach fired this season.
For Eberflus, that’s life in the NFL. But the reality is that he’s a better bet to win the Coach of the Year Award than he is to be the first coach fired. Or fired at all.
Even with a 10-24 record in two seasons as the Bears’ head coach, Eberflus’ seat isn’t as hot as you think, or as hot as you’d like it to be if the Bears lose to the Titans on Sunday, or don’t go 6-2 before the bye, or finish 8-9 and don’t make the playoffs.
Bears chairman George McCaskey already lowered the bar of expectations — and set a tone that surely echoes throughout Halas Hall — when he preached patience with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams this season in an interview with the Sun-Times last week.
“Caleb’s got a lot of support — a solid defense, good receivers, good offensive line, a good running game, tight ends. But I hope people will be patient,” McCaskey said. “There are going to be growing pains. He’s going to make mistakes. That’s part of the learning process for any young quarterback.”
Even with the firing of three general managers and four head coaches in the last 12 years — seismic change for the Bears — they have a higher threshold of disappointment at Halas Hall than outside of the building.
Seeing success out of failure is a Bears management style. With Bears fans howling for regime change in 2020, McCaskey and former team president Ted Phillips lauded GM Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy for rallying from a six-game losing streak — a hole they themselves dug — to finish 8-8 and make the playoffs. While a portion of the fan base was calling for change last season, current GM Ryan Poles credited Eberflus with keeping a sinking ship afloat when the Bears rallied from an 0-4 start to go 5-3 in the second half and finish 7-10.
It should be no surprise that the game that resonated most with Poles when he was evaluating Williams at USC last year was not any of the blowouts or shootouts he won, but his worst game of the season — a 48-20 loss to Notre Dame in which Williams threw three interceptions in the first half in a marquee game, but stayed engaged with coaches and teammates and didn’t let his disappointment consume him.
It’s looking more and more like that was actually pretty astute evaluation by Poles, and therein likes the biggest reason why Eberflus is unlikely to go anywhere: Before he’s even started a regular-season NFL game, Williams raises the floor for Shane Waldon’s offense and Eberflus’ team in general. Even if he’s not a sensation, he’s at the very least going to be more to build on than Mitch Trubisky or Justin Fields ever were.
The same goes for the Bears overall. They might disappoint, but it’s unlikely they’ll plummet to lows that have made change inevitable in previous years. So unless Eberflus’ own defense is the root of the Bears’ demise — another unlikely event — he’s not going anywhere in 2024.
2. Then again, keep an eye on Harbaugh in Los Angeles. If the former Bears quarterback works his magic with the Chargers and turns Justin Herbert from a sub-.500 quarterback (30-32) into a big winner and puts the Chargers in contention in the AFC West, Poles’ decision to not even take a shot at an upgrade (“He’s the coach at Michigan”) could turn up the heat if Eberflus and the Bears are slow out of the gate.
3. The bar for Williams in his debut isn’t that high, historically. Over the past 15 seasons, quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall are 0-8-1 as Week 1 starters with a 63.2 passer rating (12 touchdowns, 19 interceptions).
The Panthers’ Cam Newton threw for 422 yards, two touchdowns and an interception for a 110.4 passer rating — and rushed for a touchdown — in a 28-21 road loss to Cardinals in 2011. (Having proven receivers makes a difference — Steve Smith had eight receptions for 178 yards and two touchdowns in that game; tight end Greg Olsen added four receptions for 78 yards.)
But no other quarterback in that span was better than 75.2 — the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, who threw two touchdown passes in the final six minutes for a 27-27 tie with the Lions in 2019.
3a. The last quarterback drafted No. 1 overall to win in Week 1 of his rookie season is David Carr with the expansion Texans in 2002 — in a 19-10 home victory over the Cowboys. Carr completed 10 of 22 passes for 145 yards, two touchdowns and an interception for a 78.8 passer rating.
Overall, the last rookie quarterback to win in Week 1 is the Jets’ Sam Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick of the 2018 draft who had a 116.8 passer rating (16 of 21, 198 yards, two touchdowns, one interception) in a 48-17 victory over the Lions.
4. Blast from the Past: The last quarterback drafted No. 1 overall to make his NFL debut at Soldier Field was the Colts’ Andrew Luck against the Bears in 2012.
Jay Cutler threw a pick-6 to Jerrell Freeman on the fourth play from scrimmage to put the Bears in an early hole. But the Bears’ intercepted Luck three times (Tim Jennings twice, Chris Conte), sacked him three times (Henry Melton twice, Corey Wooten with a strip sack) in a 41-21 victory. Luck completed 23 of 45 passes for 309 yards with one touchdown and a 52.9 passer rating.
4a. For trivia buffs only: Freeman is one of six players who had a pick-6 against the Bears and later played for them or coached them: the Giants’ Alec Ogletree in 2018 (Chase Daniel), the Browns’ Tashaun Gipson in 2013 (Jay Cutler), the Colts’ Kelvin Hayden (Rex Grossman in Super Bowl XLI), the Lions’ Dick Jauron in 1973 (Gary Huff) and the Packers’ Lee Roy Caffee in 1965 (Bill Wade).
5. Former NFL quarterback Chris Simms has been a fan of Fields but also has been spot-on in his critique of Fields in his annual rundown of top 40 quarterbacks in the NFL — “throwing motion is slow”; “doesn’t see windows”; “not great anticipation”; “turns down more NFL-open throws than anybody in the Top 40.”
Simms already has Williams rated ahead of Fields in this year’s list. Williams is No. 20 — his highest ranking ever for a rookie quarterback. Fields is No. 25. And two points of his Williams analyses stand out as likely upgrades:
• “He never misses a throw he shouldn’t miss.”
• “His ability to scramble — stay behind the line of scrimmage — is as good as I’ve ever seen.”
6. Williams’ accuracy on first down will be an under-the-radar stat to keep an eye on in Waldron’s offense.
Last year, Fields’ 58.7% completion rate on first-down passes ranked last among the 28 NFL quarterbacks to start 10 or more games.
Waldron’s offense figures to give Williams an opportunity to improv on that. Geno Smith had a 57.8 completion rate in seven NFL seasons, but improved to 67.5% in three seasons under Waldron with the Seahawks, including an NFL-best 69.8% in 2022.
7. The List: Players the Bears can least afford to lose — 1. Quarterback Caleb Williams; 2. Defensive end Montez Sweat; 3. Right tackle Darnell Wright; 4. Defensive tackle Andrew Billings; 5. Wide receiver DJ Moore.
8. Bits and pieces — Williams will be the third rookie quarterback to start Week 1 in Bears history — after Zeke Bratkowski (1954) and Kyle Orton (2005), both of whom started because of injury to the designated starter (George Blanda, Rex Grossman). … Sid Luckman started at halfback in his first seven games in 1939 before getting his first start at quarterback against the Lions in Week 9. … The last Bears quarterback to start every game of the regular season was Cutler in 2009. … The expected starting offensive line of Braxton Jones, Teven Jenkins, Coleman Shelton, Nate Davis and Darnell Wright against the Titans will be the 19th in 35 games of the Eberflus era (and 43rd different offensive line combination overall). … The Bears’ win total ranges from 8.5 to 9.5 at various sportsbooks.
9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: The Seahawks traded a sixth-round draft pick for Jaguars edge rusher Trevis Gipson after starter Uchenna Nwosu suffered a sprained knee in the Seahawks’ preseason finale and Darrell Taylor was traded to the Bears.
Gipson had one sack in eight games (76 snaps) with the Titans last year after being cut by the Bears after the preseason. He signed a one-year, $1.3 million contract with the Jaguars ($42,500 guaranteed) in free agency.
10. Bear-ometer — 10-7: vs. Titans (W); at Texans (L); at Colts (W); vs. Rams (L); vs. Panthers (W); vs. Jaguars in London (L); at Commanders (W); at Cardinals (W); vs. Patriots (W); vs. Packers (W); vs. Vikings (L); at Lions (L); at 49ers (L); at Vikings (W); vs. Lions (W); vs. Seahawks (W); at Packers (L).