Doubling Down on ‘Too Much Heat’
Image by Kamran Abdullayev.
A recent Arctic News headline d/d October 4, 2024 refers to one of the most significant climate-related studies this year. It describes in detail the worldwide all-encompassing danger of loss of sea ice: Double Blue Ocean Event, 2025? It demands attention.
A casual reading of climate change literature reveals several mentions of ecosystem impairment or collapse of one sort or another occurring in various timeframes this century. In that context, nothing quite compares to a Double Blue Ocean Event. This event, should it occur, changes everything. It has the potential to be the “holocaust of climate change” with uncontrollable self-propelled rapid global temperature rise damaging or completely destroying ecosystems supportive of life. Already, there’s palpable early-stage evidence this has started, for example, in the Amazon rainforest.
Double Blue Ocean Event 2025? is a lengthy science-based essay of the mechanics and sources and implications of a Double Blue Ocean Event occurring as early as this decade. But, like all climate events, nothing’s certain until it happens. The climate can be fickle. Hopefully, this one doesn’t, but it’s not looking good.
A Double Blue Ocean Event occurs when the sea ice of both Antarctica and the Arctic virtually disappears with sea ice minimum extent (a summer seasonal event) falling below one million km², which is classified as a “blue ocean event.” According to the Danish Meteorological Institute, as of September 2024, Arctic sea ice minimum extent was 4.28 million km². The referenced Arctic News’ study believes several factors have aligned that could speed up loss of sea ice extent rapidly, within a few years.
For another viewpoint, the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then. That’s the conclusion of a recent peer-reviewed study in Nature Communications.
Of course, none of this would be happening without excessive amounts of CO2 from burning fossil fuels, resulting in human thrusters, i.e., greenhouse gases like CO2, impacting climate change/global warming >10 times faster than nature’s true course. This is well-established fact.
Along with the Arctic, Antarctica is expected to reach an equivalent sea ice minimum extent as early as February 2025. In fact, Antarctic sea ice minimum extent has been well below 2.0 million km² for each of the past three years. It is within striking distance of a blue ocean event.
The worldwide impact of low global sea ice extent drives up global temperatures in multiple ways well beyond current experience. This involves seven (7) mechanisms that cause global surface temperature to rise, in turn, accelerating decline of sea ice extent as the pattern self-perpetuates, faster and faster, bigger and bigger, feeding upon itself. Each of the seven mechanisms relates to profound changes in (1) snow and ice cover (2) wind patterns and (3) ocean currents.
According to Arctic News: “Low global sea ice is driving up global temperatures at the moment in multiple ways. Global sea ice extent is now several million km² lower than it was decades ago, i.e., more than 2.5 million km² lower than the 2010’s average extent and more than 5 million km² lower than the 1980’s average extent.” As a result, global ice cover no longer absorbs nor reflects solar radiation efficiently enough to prevent rapid, excessive global warming. This ageless ice cushion that’s as old as humankind is now departing the timeless equation of keeping Earth in balance. It is nearly gone, forever gone.
According to Arctic News, today’s sea ice extent dictates a call to arms, aka: “Climate Emergency Declaration” today, not tomorrow, but today.
The evidence that low global sea ice is already impacting the climate system is found in NASA data, as of September 2024, showing global temperature more than 1.5°C above a baseline 1903-1924 consecutively for 15 months; however, when compared to the real (much older) pre-industrial base, it is higher yet. This exceeds everything the nations of the world agreed to at the Paris 2015 climate conference, and surprise, surprise, happening within only one decade of their ill-kept promise to limit CO2 emissions so as not to exceed +1.5°C pre-industrial. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC: “Exceeding 1.5°C could trigger irreversible climate tipping points, such as (1) collapse of tropical coral reefs (2) thawing permafrost, and (3) breakdown of ocean circulation systems.” All three have respectively started collapsing, thawing, and breaking down:
1. Coral Reefs Could Pass Their Point of No Return This Decade, GermanWatch, February 16, 2023
2. Arctic Permafrost is Now a Net Source of Major Greenhouse Gases, NewScientist, April 12, 2024.
3. A Crucial System of Ocean Currents is Heading for a Collapse That ‘Would Affect Every Person on the Planet’, CNN, July 26, 2023
The most obvious mechanism influencing, and measuring global temperature is the growing energy imbalance or the difference between what Earth absorbs and what Earth reflects of incoming solar radiation to outer space (Problem #1, the Blue Ocean Event eliminates the planet’s biggest reflector). A decade ago (2010s) the energy imbalance was +0.81 W/m2 (watts per square meter). Today it is +1.23 W/m2 That’s a whopping +52% increase in a geological wink of the eye. It’s an earth-shattering increase, spelling trouble, in all-caps. Clearly, the planet’s energy imbalance is skyrocketing, out of control, absorbing way too much heat way too fast. Humanity’s just asking for trouble.
Here’s what the Arctic News article has to say about the severity of the energy imbalance: “It’s obvious that political action can and must improve Earth’s Energy Imbalance, which can and must be achieved by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and further action through transitions in energy use, agriculture, transport, etc.”
“The IPCC has for many years weaved and twisted findings by scientists into a political narrative that downplays the temperature rise and refuses to point at the most effective measures to be taken to act on climate change in an effort to create the illusion that there was a carbon budget to be divided among polluters as if pollution could continue for decades to come.” (Arctic News)
Worldwide Ice Loss – A Gargantuan Planetary Tipping Point
The Arctic News article postulates that civilization, as we know it, is skating on thin ice as a result of the hidden impact and consequences of worldwide ice loss via (1) Arctic sea ice loss (2) permafrost loss in Siberia and North America (3) loss of Antarctica sea ice (4) loss of snow and ice on Greenland (5) loss of mountaintop glaciers like the Tibetan Plateau (6) Patagonian Ice Fields (7) Andes Mountains, and (8) the famous Alps; all tipping points when combined become a gargantuan juggernaut of planetary change no longer serving as a cushion preventing runaway planetary heat. It’s serious business, cannot be ignored, requiring immediate cuts in CO2 emissions… or else?
In the simplest of terms, massive loss of world ice extent, as well as glaciers, is comparable to shutting off the air conditioning of a Phoenix, Arizona apartment complex on a hot summer 115°F day, midday. In the instance of ice loss: Solar radiation is no longer absorbed, neutralized by ice nor reflected to outer space. Thereafter, heat suddenly overwhelms and hangs out in the apartment complex (proxy for the planet). Consequently, record 2024 temperatures of +1.5°C above preindustrial look mild by comparison, as compromised ecosystems, like the Amazon rainforest, lose it.
According to Arctic News: A huge temperature rise could occur soon, as the impact of these mechanisms keeps growing with latent heat tipping points triggered by the Double Blue Ocean Event subsequently triggering a massive seafloor methane tipping point, feeding into a frenzied hot house Earth. Early warning signs of this are prevalent.
“The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed, in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.” (Arctic News)
All of which recalls philosopher-economist Kohei Saito (University of Tokyo) Capital in the Anthropocene, Shueisha Publishing, 2020: “Capitalism and a healthy planet are intrinsically at odds.” (Source: A Carbon-free World Isn’t Possible with Capitalism, Broadview, March 14, 2024)
What to do?
And there’s this: 10/28/2024: “A new report reveals the profound consequences of rising temperatures on both the environment and human health. The ‘10 New Insights In Climate Science’ highlight how surging global temperatures are not only threatening the stability of oceans and pushing the Amazon rainforest towards collapse, but also endangering maternal and reproductive health for future generations. The annual synthesis report has been launched by a consortium of more than 80 global experts from the social and natural sciences, including researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).” (Source: 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2024: Heat Surges Risk Ecosystem Collapse, Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research, October 28th, 2024)
The study of surging global temperatures making the planet increasingly uninhabitable by the prestigious Potsdam Institute confirms the overriding thesis of the Arctic News’ study and clearly reinforces a call for immediate steps to halt excessive amounts of greenhouse gases, like CO2.
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