Dick Spotswood: Political punditry here and beyond took a hit in 2024
2024 was a bad year for us pundits. Most thought that Joe Biden would never quit the presidential race. Then, with Biden out, no political prognosticator would have predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris would glide to the Democratic nomination virtually by acclamation.
Then there was the presidential election between Harris and Donald Trump. Pundits correctly thought the race would be close. Trump received 49.9%, or 77,297,721 votes, and Harris had 48.4% or 75,090,380. The Electoral College vote total spread was wider with 312 for the ticket of Trump and JD Vance and 226 for Harris and Tim Walz.
We also predicted that election results would be bitterly disputed. Trump never admitted he lost in 2020. Amazingly, when he won, he concluded that the election was fair and square. Harris promptly conceded. No one predicts Harris supporters will storm the Capitol to prevent counting the Electoral College votes.
I wasn’t surprised by Marin’s election results, with one exception. My prediction that in Novato, Measure M, the city-sponsored sales tax increase would be defeated was wrong. It prevailed with 58% of voters casting yes ballots. It needed only a majority to prevail.
As Marin County’s Civil Grand Jury reported, the city’s past fiscal performance had been dismal. Election results demonstrated that most of those voting have confidence in their city council and Novato’s new city manager, Amy Cunningham, to carry out fiscal reforms. In our current era of cynicism regarding all forms of authority, that’s a high compliment.
The race for county supervisor in District 2 representing Ross Valley, Kentfield, Larkspur and East San Rafael was close. The winner, Brian Colbert, will be a breath of fresh air at the Board of Supervisors. He’s fortunate to begin his tenure just as Marin’s new county executive, Derek Johnson, is settling in.
Johnson’s predecessor, Matthew Hymel, left the county in a first-rate financial position, Now, Johnson’s task is to move county government up a notch by striving for excellence. If excellence in government can be achieved anywhere, it’s in a county with Marin’s high level of prosperity, educational achievement and public expectations. That’s the challenge for Colbert and his four supervisorial colleagues.
The year end showed that at least in Fairfax, election results can have quick implications. When voters rejected two progressive incumbent council members, they made it clear they wanted action to eject the homeless camp near children’s play fields in Contratti Park.
On a 3-2 vote, the council voted to ban overnight camping in town parks. It was expected that newly elected council members Frank Egger and Mike Ghiringhelli voted yes. Evicting the filthy camp was one of their campaign promises.
The upshot was that Vice Mayor Stephanie Hellman supported the move. Hellman, a progressive, wrote on Facebook, “Police reports confirm serious drug use and mental health crisis making the site unsafe near a children’s park and baseball field.”
Even political progressives now understand that voters want homeless camps to be gone. It’s time for them to do the hard lifting and suggest compassionate but specific measures to get those plagued by substance abuse and mental illness off the streets and out of parks.
The new year sees tolls going up on Bay Area Caltrans bridges. Marin residents and workers will be impacted on the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge. The Golden Gate Bridge isn’t a Caltrans span. It’s operated by an independent district.
There was a time when hikes in bridge tolls were a political hot potato. Now that electronic tolling is universal, motorists are less focused on the amount of the toll.
The new Caltrans bridge toll is $8 for most drivers. It’ll increase annually before reaching $10.50 per crossing in 2030. Tolls are charged in only one direction. Presuming that a five-day-a-week worker crosses the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge 250 times a year, at $8 per crossing, that’s $2,000 annually.
Columnist Dick Spotswood of Mill Valley writes on local issues Sundays and Wednesdays. Email him at spotswood@comcast.net.