With President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. saying impeaching Vice President Sara Duterte is probably a waste of time and the Iglesia Ni Cristo (INC) backing the President’s stand with a call for a prayer rally for peace and unity on January 13, Monday next week, a Duterte impeachment appears to be a losing cause. 

Would members of the House of Representatives go against the wishes of the leadership of the powerful Christian church? The odds appear stacked against the civic groups and leaders pushing for the Vice President’s impeachment. 

But that was what most people said back in the last quarter of 2000 or 24 years ago when the sitting president then, Joseph Estrada, faced an impeachment complaint filed by three congressmen and 25 civil society leaders. 

Just like Vice President Duterte, Estrada was also a very popular leader, beloved by the masa (masses) due to his movies where he played roles as defender of the oppressed. He had a big plurality of 40% when he won the 1998 presidential elections, and his net satisfaction ratings stayed above +60 in his first year in office. 

As Estrada got rocked by various scandals — his mistresses, his mansions, capped by the jueteng (illegal numbers game) payoffs exposé of his former ally, Ilocos Sur governor Luis “Chavit” Singson, the INC nevertheless stood by the president. And it wasn’t just the INC, Brother Mike Velarde’s Catholic charismatic group El Shaddai also expressed support for him. 

Both religious groups held massive “prayer rallies” — from 500,000 to 1.2 million mobilization, according a report in Newsbreak magazine’s first issue on January 24, 2001, to support Estrada while anti-Estrada forces were able to muster only small numbers in the run-up to the impeachment process in the last quarter of 2000. 

When the impeachment complaint was filed against Estrada in October 2000, only 40 representatives — 28 from the opposition Lakas-NUCD and 12 party-list groups — had signed the complaint. They were short of 33 to meet the one-third requirement of the House of Representatives so that the complaint could be sent directly to the Senate for trial.

According to a chapter on Estrada’s impeachment which I wrote for the coffee table book, People Power 2: Lessons and Hopes, published in 2001 by ABS-CBN Publishing Incorporated, five congressmen, who were then called “Spice Boys” — Michael “Mike” Defensor, Rolando “Nonoy” Andaya Jr., Hernani “Nani” Braganza, Juan Miguel “Migs” Zubiri, and Robert “Ace” Barbers hatched a plan to convince other members of the House to sign the complaint so that it could be sent directly to the Senate. (Andaya has since died, Zubiri is now a senator, and Barbers is still a district representative.)

“The Spice Boys went house-to-house, concentrating on congressmen representing urban districts where anti-Estrada sentiments were relatively strong. They tapped old loyalties and friendships of leaders like [then] Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, former presidents Corazon Aquino and Fidel Ramos, and ex-House Speaker Jose de Venecia. They used pressure, apart from connections, when necessary — one congresswoman signed after a call from a bishop,” part of the first chapter on impeachment reads. 

It may be wise for the impeach Sara forces to look back at how it was done 24 years ago, and pick up some lessons from that historic process. It may even be easier to do now considering the results of a Stratbase-commissioned Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey last December 12 to 18, where 47% agreed with the impeachment complaint filed, 35% disagreed, and 15% were undecided for a net agreement of +12. Read Rappler’s resident columnist Val Villanueva’s exclusive report here: [Vantage Point] Time’s up for VP Sara

The key to that successful impeachment was the role of then-speaker Manny Villar. He had a group of 40 congressmen who were former members of Lakas-NUCD, more than enough to get the one-third signatures. 

And just as religious groups played a key role in support of Estrada, it was another religious group — the Catholic renewal ministry, Couples for Christ, of which Villar is a member, which finally convinced him to turn against Estrada. Villar had consulted a number of influential leaders of the Couples for Christ prior to signing the complaint. He was made the 73rd person — constituting exactly one-third of the House — to sign on the impeachment complaint. 

“My conviction was bolstered by [Couples for Christ leader] Frank [Padilla]. They [Couples for Christ] also played a role in this kasi, parang humingi ako ng lakas ng loob (I asked them for moral support),” Villar said. 

When Malacañang learned that Villar would sign, all attempts to reach him were made, but Villar’s advisers secluded him. His cell phones were turned off. 

On November 13, 2000, when session resumed, it was certain that Speaker Villar would be ousted. But before that happened, Villar read a long “Prayer for Light and Unity,” a prayer that did not end with an “Amen” but with him sending the impeachment complaint to the Senate. Pro-Estrada congressmen tried to stop him but Villar continued to read the report of the House Committee on Justice on the impeachment complaint. 

At 4:09 pm, after stating that the Articles of Impeachment were to be sent to the Senate, Villar banged the gavel and suspended the session. After that, he was replaced by Arnulfo “Noli” Fuentebella. 

But history had been made — and the seemingly impossible task of impeaching a popular president backed by the INC was done. 

Will history repeat itself? Will the impeachment complaint get 103 members of the House to sign this time? Time will tell, but the pro-impeachment forces have their work cut out for them — and vice-versa. – Rappler.com