Will this work in the playoffs?
The Cavs have been amazing thus far in the regular season, what can that tell us about the teams chances in the playoffs?
The end of 2024 was a fever dream for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The NBA world blacked out as the team rampaged through the first three months of the season, George, Lizzie and Ralph please meet Donovan, Darius, Evan and Jarrett. The team won 30 of 34 games, is scoring the second most points per game in the league, has a three-point percentage that is almost two points higher than every other team in the league and still has had time to be 8th in the league in steals per game on the defensive end.
In the national media, you will often hear narratives about small sample sizes. What the Cavaliers have done through the first third of the season does not apply (any longer) to that adage. Many questions lie ahead for this Cavaliers team. But none may be more important than whether what this team currently does will work in the playoffs?
In support of “Yes, what the Cavs do will work in the playoffs!”
The numbers are there to support the Cavs doing whatever they want this season. But there is more, currently, the Cavs have won 88% of their games. In NBA history 17 teams have finished the regular season with an over 80% winning percentage. Twelve of those 17 teams won the championship. That’s not too shabby. All but one of them made it at least to the conference finals. To make it above 80% for the season the Cavs would have to finish with at least 66 wins which would mean going 36-12 or better the rest of the season — which should be something this team can achieve.
Then there is the eye test. The Cavs haven’t played the hardest schedule in the world thus far but the team has played the previous champ Celtics twice already and split the series. Additionally, the Cavs have one west coast road trip already under its belt and looked every bit the part of a title contender beating Nikola Jokic in Denver and then the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers in back-to-back nights.
But maybe the biggest indicator that things could translate for this team is Kenny Atkinson’s willingness to experiment. We have seen Atkinson play around with lineups (check out these 9 pages of lineups), allow players the time to get out of shooting slumps (see: Sam Merrill) and generally seems to have his fingers on the pulse of this team.
In support of “No, what the Cavs have going for them will not translate in the playoffs.”
Winning in the NBA playoffs is hard. It takes things falling in place at the right time and in the right place. Sometimes it just takes someone getting hit by a punch in the crotch to find your way to an NBA title. There are some indicators that this Cavs team has that magic in them — but to make it last for another six months would be quite a feat.
The Cavs have been the best team in the league and still have only the 5th best odds in Vegas to win the title. Even making it to the Eastern Conference Finals will take some doing this year. The east is deep, aside from the aforementioned Celtics, the Knicks are good, the Bucks have possibly the best player in the entire league and the 76ers and Magic both have amazing rosters that nobody will want to face at full health (not to mention a resurgent Hawks team).
There are still times, particularly at the end of close games, when this team reverts to the Darius Garland / Donovan Mitchell give-and-take of past seasons. The offense which has tended to be a whirling dervish of player movement and three-point shots grinds to a halt in favor of isolation plays and two-point fadeaways. To this point that has worked well for this team but it could become an issue when the games start to matter more.
Finally, this Cavaliers team will go through a shooting slump at some point. It happens to every team, every year. It’s just a question of when. If it happens at the wrong time, it could lead to troubling outcomes as shooting variance can tend to explain recent playoff outcomes.
What do I believe?
Count me a believer that what the Cavs are doing will work in the playoffs. I’ve seen too much amazing basketball from them in the past two and a half months to have any other opinion.
Every game there is another dazzling play, something that makes you drop your jaw and gape at the ability of some great player on this roster. That broad ability of the team has made me devotee of this team. This can and should work in the playoffs.