The January Surprise

JNS.org – For months, President Joe Biden’s detractors predicted that he would deliver a last-minute betrayal of Israel, akin to President Barack Obama’s infamous abstention on a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Israeli settlements in 2016. When the “surprise” came, it was not the one critics anticipated. Rather than silence them, however, their outrage was fueled by the unexpected admissions of his secretary of state.

First, we were told Biden would pull an Obama immediately after the election in November. Instead, he defied expectations with a reverse Obama, vetoing a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza over its failure to condemn Hamas and demand the immediate release of the hostages as a condition for ending the fighting. Moreover, Biden approved the sale of more than $680 million in weapons to Israel.

Not to worry, we could expect the surprise to come before the end of the year. Alas, December came and went without an “Obama.”

Unfazed, Biden bashers assured us that he would act against Israel in January before he leaves office. They were right about him having a surprise; it was just not what they had expected.

Instead of some hostile act, he approved an $8 billion weapons sale. That is in addition to the extraordinary $14.1 billion and $20 billion packages he approved earlier. Remember all the whining about Washington withholding 2,000-pound bombs? The new package includes guidance kits designed to be fitted to those bombs, which presumably means Israel will be getting them, albeit later than when it wanted them.

Still, the administration’s generosity has been dismissed because these weapons won’t be delivered immediately, ignoring their critical role in securing Israel’s future offensive and defensive capabilities.

What has made the arms transfers even more extraordinary is that Biden approved them over the objections within his U.S. State Department and the Democratic Party’s progressive wing that wanted to cut aid and turn Biden against Israel.

However, a surprise in January echoed what Biden’s opponents warned about—though not in the way they imagined.

In a New York Times interview, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a startling revelation: the administration’s policies undermined Israel’s war effort. This was no mea culpa, as the title of the interview indicated that Blinken believed he and Biden “made the right calls.”

In an acknowledgment of what analysts have said for more than a year, Blinken confessed that the impediment to a hostage deal was U.S. policy: “Whenever there has been public daylight between the United States and Israel, and the perception that pressure was growing on Israel, we’ve seen it: Hamas has pulled back from agreeing to a ceasefire and the release of hostages.”

Knowing this, the administration still did not change its policy of condemning Israeli policies, giving Hamas hope that Biden would force Israel to accept the terrorists’ demands. This is the problem virtually every president has failed to understand; that is, one-sided pressure on Israel only emboldens the enemies of peace.

The bigger surprise came in Blinken’s disclosure of the administration’s original sin that set the worst outcomes of the war in motion. He said he flew to Israel five days after Oct. 7 in advance of the president’s planned trip to Jerusalem to show American solidarity with Israel. “I told the prime minister,” Blinken said. “I’m going to call the president and tell him not to come if you don’t allow this [humanitarian] assistance to start flowing.”

This threat forced Israel to abandon its initial strategy. It was under no legal obligation to provide humanitarian supplies. The government wanted to impose a siege on Gaza—a legitimate military tactic aimed at isolating Hamas while minimizing casualties among Israeli soldiers. This decision had catastrophic consequences:

Hamas Survival: Aid meant for civilians was stolen by Hamas, providing a lifeline that has prolonged its operations.

Hostage Crisis: By easing the siege and creating “daylight” between Washington and Jerusalem, the administration gave Hamas confidence to hold hostages longer, resulting in the deaths of dozens, including Americans.

Humanitarian Crisis: Biden forced civilians to remain in a conflict zone instead of evacuating them outside Gaza, where they would have had easy access to assistance. This allowed Hamas to use them as human shields, leading to thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Global Condemnation: Israel bore the blame for the worsening conditions in Gaza, with the United States contributing to the outcry by repeatedly criticizing Israel for failing to mitigate the problem it created.

Internal Divisions: Prolonging the hostage crisis deepened divisions within Israel. The administration also made no secret of its desire to see Netanyahu toppled.

Micromanaging the War: By pressuring Israel not to launch a ground operation in Gaza immediately and to delay its move into Rafah, withholding or slow-rolling weapons systems, and dictating what Israel could target in Lebanon and Iran, the administration prolonged the war.

For many Jews, these policy choices—driven by the same Obama-era advisers who previously undermined the State of Israel—outweigh the unprecedented arms sales, unwavering vetoes at the United Nations and critical deployment of American forces to protect Israel from external threats.

As the January surprises reveal, the legacy of Biden’s Israel policy is a paradox: extraordinary support coupled with avoidable missteps that exacerbated the war’s toll.

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