Trump and Milei: An ideological match, but can they work together?

As Donald Trump prepares to assume power for a second term Monday, avowed admirer Javier Milei of Argentina has his sights set on becoming the US president's man in Latin America.

But while the duo have much in common, analysts do not clearly see what Milei stands to gain politically from a close friendship with his ideological idol.

Self-declared "anarcho-capitalist" Milei was the first foreign leader to visit Trump at his Mar-a-Lago Florida estate after the Republican's November US election victory.

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The pair share right-wing ideologies, and some personality traits. They are both showmen known to be abrasive towards their detractors, dismissive of "wokeism," and supportive of cost-cutting and deregulation.

Both also have the backing of Tesla, X and SpaceX boss Elon Musk, who has taken note of Milei's chainsaw-wielding approach to budget-slashing ahead of taking on his own new role as the head of Trump's "Department of Government Efficiency".

"It is clear that there will be a very strong political affinity: Argentina will be closely aligned with the priorities of the United States, both at a global and regional level," Ariel Gonzalez Levaggi of the Argentine Council for International Relations told AFP.

"Milei has consolidated himself as one of Trump's most important foreign allies," added Benjamin Gedan, Latin American head of the Washington-based Wilson Center think tank.

The incoming US leader will need an ally in the region as he ramps up pressure on ideological foes Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, while also sparring with Mexico over immigration and with Panama over control of the Panama Canal.

But even if he can be of use to Trump in a region where the US leader has few rightwing allies, what does Milei stand to benefit?

- In search of funds -

The Argentine leader is seeking funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to which his country is already repaying a record $44 billion loan issued with Trump's support during his first term in office.

However, Trump has appointed a Milei critic -- former Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) head Mauricio Claver-Carone -- as his special envoy to Latin America.

Claver-Carone has already said that any talk of a new loan for Argentina was nothing but "an illusion," a "waste of time."

"Perhaps some additional disbursements could be released" from the existing loan, said Gonzalez Levaggi.

"But a new deal, a new loan? Unlikely," even as Argentina's sky-high inflation has nosedived during Milei's first year in office.

Another difference between the two leaders is on trade.

Trump seeks to protect US domestic industry through import tariffs, while Milei is an ardent free market advocate.

"In this context, Milei could be left disappointed if Trump imposes new tariffs on the whole world, including on Argentine exports," said Claudio Loser, a former IMF Western Hemisphere chief.

Argentina is a major exporter of beef, wine, dairy and grains.

- China's regional role -

Jorge Arguello, who was Argentina's ambassador to Washington under US presidents Barack Obama, Trump and Joe Biden, says he "never saw a particular interest in Argentina, nor Latin America" in that office.

It is only when there is a presence "of external actors like China or Russia that alarms go off" in Washington, he added.

China is Argentina's second-biggest trading partner after Brazil, and Beijing last year extended a currency swap worth billions of dollars that brought much-needed relief for Argentina's depleted foreign reserves.

Despite once vowing he would never make deals with communists, the usually incendiary Milei showed his pragmatic side when he cordially met with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro last November.

The reality is that China has a capacity for investment in Latin American infrastructure "that the US cannot offer," said Alejandro Frenkel, an international relations expert at San Martin University in Buenos Aires.

And Milei's hopes for a free trade agreement with the United States may have to wait for the departure of Trump and his "America First" agenda, the analysts say.