The arrest of the Philippines' former president leaves the country's drug war in disarray

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested by the International Criminal Court (ICC) earlier this month on charges of crimes against humanity. But while he may face punishment for his alleged actions, the Philippines' war on drug trafficking that led to his arrest may have a more complex fix than putting Duterte in handcuffs.

Duterte has been charged with the "crime against humanity of murder" for allegedly ordering the systemic, extrajudicial killings of Filipinos accused of dealing drugs. Current Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. has also prioritized the nation's drug problem, but some legal analysts say Duterte's arrest may not be the solution.

Allegedly thousands killed

Duterte was an "indirect co-perpetrator for the crime against humanity of murder, allegedly committed in the Philippines," said the ICC. Duterte first instituted the war on drugs upon taking office, claiming that thousands of Filipinos were guilty of drug trafficking crimes.

He is accused of being criminally responsible for 43 murders from 2011 to 2019, a time in which he was mayor of the city of Davao and later president. But the total number of deaths during his rule is allegedly much higher; his war on drug trafficking "involved the extrajudicial killings of somewhere between 6,000 and more than 12,000 people, mostly urban working-class and poor," said The Nation. The victims were "described by police as 'drug suspects'; all were deprived of due process." The dead reportedly included children as young as 3.

A complex problem

If Duterte is brought to trial, it likely will not be until 2026. The country's drug war hasn't fully stopped since Marcos Jr. became president; he "often spoke about winding down the bloody and brutal drug war initiated by his predecessor," but he has "maintained Duterte's bloody drug war," said the Council on Foreign Relations.

And while Duterte's arrest is an "exceedingly rare case of the international justice system holding a strongman accountable," said Foreign Policy, it may not have a wider effect in the Philippines. It will be "difficult for the families of drug war victims to bring cases against members of the Philippine National Police," many of whom are alleged to have actually carried out the killings.

The Philippines needs "laws that will rebuild and strengthen institutions to make sure that they can withstand the next time another Duterte comes along," said Leila de Lima, a former Philippine senator, to Foreign Policy. But the country's government is still filled with supporters of Duterte, many of whom "still hold considerable political power," Joel Ariate, a researcher at the University of the Philippines, said to Foreign Policy.

Duterte's daughter Sara Duterte is also the Philippines' current vice president and is leading in the polls to replace Marcos Jr. as president. Despite being a key part of his administration, she has "railed against him, saying that she wanted to cut his head off and threatening to dig up his father's body and throw it into the ocean," said The New York Times.

All of these factors have led to a complex chain of events in the Philippines, leaving the future of the drug war uncertain. Marcos is "gambling that he can eliminate the Dutertes as a political force without any major backlash," said the Times. The "issue is now likely to be front and center during the midterm elections, seen as a proxy battle between the Marcoses and the Dutertes."