I'm a Democratic strategist with an urgent warning for my fellow Dems

More than a decade ago, in 2014, Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor suffered one of the most shocking primary defeats in modern political history. He lost to Dave Brat, by all accounts an underdog tea party member, lacking in Cantor’s name recognition and fundraising bona fides, but who was further to the right on political ideology and had grassroots support. The warning signs were there, but Cantor and the Republican establishment ignored them, convinced their power and money could outmatch an insurgent wave. They were wrong. 

A CNN poll conducted from March 6-9, 2025, found that 52% of Democratic-aligned individuals believe the party's leadership is steering it in the wrong direction and, in a Fox News poll conducted between March 14-17, 2025, shows that Congressional Democrats have a disapproval rating of 66%, with only 30% approving. 

These numbers show that in every Democratic district across the country, incumbents should be fearful of primary candidates. Disillusioned voters are tired of seeing their representatives appear to be out of touch and not able to meet the moment. The signs are clear: the economic situation of American families is not getting better – and voters see Democrats idly sitting by and doing nothing to help their bottom lines.  

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In fact, an NBC News poll conducted from March 7-11, 2025, showed that almost two-thirds of Democrats want their lawmakers in Congress to stick to their positions rather than make compromises with President Donald Trump. This is going to fuel a wave of challengers and Democratic incumbents will suffer the same fate as Cantor if no changes are made.  

This isn’t just about progressives versus moderates, as much as the mainstream narrative would love to have us believe. It’s about a growing disconnect between Democratic leadership and the voters they claim to represent. 

Like Cantor, many Democratic incumbents are assuming their money, name recognition and party infrastructure will save them. But voters are increasingly rejecting that logic. 

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Democrats are in the minority in every sense of the word, but it can get worse if they do not start to pay attention to their actual constituents. Trump won the White House by about 1.5%, Republicans hold a three-seat majority in the Senate and a slim majority in the House.  In a political climate where anger is boiling over — whether it be because of economic struggles or the Democratic Party’s ongoing failure to deliver on key promises — those defenses won’t hold.  

If Democratic leaders don’t adjust, they will watch their ranks get "Cantored" one by one. Some will lose to progressive challengers who channel the party’s left-wing base. Others will be ousted by moderate Democrats who argue that incumbents have become too extreme, too old or out of touch for their districts. And in swing districts, a weakened Democratic nominee could hand the seat to Republicans altogether. 

The Democratic Party should not ignore history. If they don’t recognize the parallels to Cantor’s fall, history is about to repeat itself at their expense, but the people who will ultimately suffer are their constituents. 

That’s why the Democratic Party needs to focus solely on the economy. When I traveled the country as a communications aide to President Joe Biden, I saw, first-hand, families who struggled to be able to pay for basic needs such as life-saving medicine and childcare.  

While cultural issues make for good soundbites, incumbents should remember that economic issues are at the forefront of Americans’ minds right now. Trump’s trade wars are having a real effect and causing pain and fear across the country. Democrats need to be the party that addresses these issues head-on rather than capitulating to demands from Trump, the leader of the Republican party, doing all this damage in the first place.   

Incumbents must focus on the cost of groceries and the cost of housing, and refuse to accept the blame for the disastrous economy led by Trump. They should focus on the policies that address the concerns of the base of the party, working class people, and act like they genuinely give a damn. Maybe then we can save ourselves from Eric Cantor’s fate.