Scientists fear impact of National Weather Service cuts
TAZEWELL COUNTY, Ill. (WGN) — Sunday service at Crossroads Global Methodist Church often starts in song, but on the morning of November 17, 2013, it began with tornado sirens alerting congregants of an approaching storm.
"Everybody's phones were going off," executive director Donna Cimino recalled. "We immediately started moving people to our storm shelters."
The warning issued by the National Weather Service a full 16 minutes ahead of the tornado's arrival no doubt saved lives as 190 mph winds ripped through the community of Washington and upended the lives of its 16,000 residents.
"The weather service that morning was top notch, and I just don’t see how anybody or any other organization could put out warnings like that to save lives," said Chuck Collins, chief meteorologist at WEEK-TV in Peoria. "The weather service in Lincoln was on it. The first sign of rotation detected by Doppler they put out the warnings because they knew it was such a volatile situation."
About 4,400 people operate the National Weather Service, including the development, launch, and maintenance of the country's satellite and Doppler radar systems. It's an immense task to provide the often critical, life-saving information every moment of every day of the year.
"It’s incredible. From the sun to the sea, the only agency that has the word prediction, forecast and warnings in their mission statement is the National Weather Service," said Dr. Louis Uccellini, who served as the service's director from 2013 to 2022. "We're doing it for the protection of life and property, and for the enhancement of the national economy."
The agency responsible for forecasts, warnings, and water and climate data is authorized by Congress to employ 4,800 but for the last several years has operated with a workforce of about 400 fewer. And as the summer hurricane season looms, so too do cuts to the federal workforce. Citing economics, the Trump administration announced sweeping cuts across multiple federal agencies, including the NWS.
In late February, more than 500 probationary staff members were terminated across NOAA. That number includes about 100 National Weather Service employees. Since that time, probationers were reinstated and placed on paid administrative leave pending ongoing litigation. About 160 additional NWS employees accepted a deferred resignation package.
"I view it as an uninformed, cruel step," Uccellini said. "There are a number of people let go from offices already staffed at fairly low levels."
The Washington tornado killed three residents, displaced roughly 2,000 more, and destroyed 596 homes, but six-term Republican Mayor Gary Manier said the tragedy could have been much worse without the relationship between the weather service's local office and the communities in harm's way.
"Those people do a remarkable job and we can't live without them," he said.
Paul Dailey, the former head of Chicago's local weather office, agreed. His critical research led to new warning criteria after the deadly heatwave of 1995.
"From that day, we have saved many, many more lives," he said. "(Local officials) have a hotline to our office, and either one of us pick up that phone at any time and talk to each other."
Every piece of weather information clipped and disseminated has its origins with the National Weather Service. Without the NWS, the country would not have weather data.
"This fabric of collaboration within the weather service, within the enterprise, serving public officials that are making lifesaving decisions. If you keep on making these cuts, you are damaging that thread, and at some point it breaks, and it could break at a very difficult time for a community," Uccellini warned.
As the cuts from Washington, D.C. spark concern among those in the federal workforce, they're also creating unease among students hoping to join the weather service.
"Many of them have dreams. They want to become a National Weather Service forecaster. They want to dedicate their lives to public service, and now they are seeing all around them, jobs getting pulled or rescinded back," Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini said.
He added that the NWS budget is less than $1.5 billion, but the return on the investment is about $190 billion.
Supporters of the cuts argue that privatizing the service would save money, but taxpayers would likely pay more for private companies which would have the added expense of buying data back from the government.
Kyle Pittman, a doctoral candidate in meteorology at Northern Illinois University, called the downsizing "frustrating."
"We have more people and possessions in the path of tornadoes than ever before," he said.
Dailey, the ex-chief of NWS Chicago, feared for what the cuts could mean for the health of the agency.
"If they lose what they say are the people who don’t have enough time in the service yet — if you lose them, you’re losing your youth, you’re losing your future. How do you replace the future?" he said.