Kodai Senga Pitching With Humility, Finding New Success
On a cold Monday night, Kodai Senga worked through five shutout innings against a familiar Marlins lineup. After allowing a walk and a single to open the first, Senga escaped thanks in part to Hayden Senger’s first career caught stealing. From there, he settled in, mixing pitches well and inducing a pair of double plays in the fourth and fifth to get out of more trouble.
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It wasn’t overpowering, but it was efficient: five hits, two walks, four strikeouts, and no runs.
The start was part of a promising — and slightly different — version of Senga we’re seeing in 2025.
Senga’s arsenal has seen some subtle but meaningful shifts since last season. He’s now leaning more heavily on his slower secondary pitches — the sweeper, slider, and curveball — which have jumped from a combined 13.1% usage in 2024 (via Baseball Savant) to over 22% so far this year. At the same time, he has reduced usage of his four-seamer, throwing it 28.6% of the time (from 35.1% in 2024), with his cutter close behind at 23.4%. In Monday’s outing, that mix was on full display: 22 four-seamers, 20 ghost forks, and 18 cutters. He also threw eight sweepers, seven sliders, and two traditional curveballs.
That ability to adjust is part of being able to battle aging and evolve as a pitcher, especially after injury. (Our old friend Jacob deGrom is facing a similar situation in Texas). The offspeed arsenal (pretty much the forkball) continues to be his bread and butter, with a +2 run value and a 97th percentile ranking, it’s one of the most effective in baseball.
It is, however, somewhat worrying to see his fastball struggling. He’s often relied on playing his fastball and ghost fork off each other, forcing hitters to rely on guesswork. This year, though, his fastball has been hit harder, with opponents posting a .333 batting average and 1.000 slugging percentage. If he’s unable to get his fastball working, it’ll make it a lot harder to tunnel the forkball effectively. It’ll be interesting to see if the dip in velocity is simply a result of early-season rust or something more concerning.
We have also seen Senga show better overall command, trimming his walk rate and flashing a whiff rate that ranks among the best in the league. His 41% whiff rate and 40% strikeout rate also are both sitting comfortably in the 90th percentile or higher in the early going. Even when hitters make contact, his solid ground ball rate gives him an escape hatch — as it did twice on Monday night with the two double plays.
“That first inning I could tell they did their homework,” Senga said through a translator. “They researched me up pretty good — but we had a good gameplan tonight, Senger did a good job calling the game and we had good results.”
He also tipped his cap to the bullpen guys. “The bullpen’s doing a great job, not only the guys that threw today but the whole staff in general. They put us in the best position for us to win.”
So far, Senga is doing the same. He’s using what he knows works, pitching to contact when he needs to, and trusting the weapons that make him unique. This is all against the Marlins, a weak offensive team, but they’re steps in the right direction after contributing minimal innings last year.
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