New tariffs may soon hit your favorite foods—here’s what’s at risk
Trump’s tariffs are currently on hold for all countries with the exception of China. If and when they do go into effect, however, your trip to the supermarket will likely get a whole lot pricier.
The tariffs promise sweeping new taxes on imports from nearly all countries; and if past research tells us anything, the cost of those tariffs—taxes paid by businesses on goods from outside the country—will likely be passed on almost entirely to American consumers.
Coupled with higher inflation and slower U.S. economic growth, these tariffs are expected to raise prices in the U.S., according to the Budget Lab at Yale.
Here’s a look at some of the food items likely to be hit the hardest.
What foods will get more expensive?
Food that isn’t grown locally will take the biggest hit. However, the price of coffee, seafood, fruit, cheese, nuts, candy bars, and other imported foods, are likely to increase the most, according to experts, as reported by CNN. That’s because the U.S. imports approximately 80% of its coffee and seafood, 59% of its fresh fruit, and 35% of its fresh vegetables, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
While these foods are likely to increase the most, the damage isn’t limited to these grocery store items. Phil Lempert, a food trends reporter, known as the Supermarket Guru, told NPR that “probably almost half of the products in a supermarket—about 40,000 products—will be affected by these tariffs, whether it’s the entire product or just an ingredient.”
Other groceries that consumers might want to keep an eye on include: alcohol, beef, and yes, chocolate, per NPR.
Coffee
The U.S. is the world’s second-leading coffee importer (both Arabica and Robusta varieties); and in 2023, about 80% of unroasted coffee imports came from Latin America (valued at $4.8 billion), principally from two countries: Brazil and Colombia, according to USDA.
Seafood
Chile, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are the largest suppliers of seafood to this country, per the USDA. The U.S. imports about 80% of its seafood, with estimates as high as 85%, by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In addition, Vietnam and Indonesia, could see some of the highest “reciprocal” tariffs, pushing prices even higher. (But with the new 90-day pause on tariffs, the short- and long-term effects are yet to be determined.)
Fruit
Costa Rica and Guatemala are the leading exporters of bananas to the U.S. According to the USDA, we also get pineapple, avocados, and mangoes from Costa Rica; and from Guatemala, melons, plantains, and papayas.
Lempert told NPR that because “these products don’t have a long shelf life,” the tariffs will not only cause higher prices but also availability issues.
Cheese
Some of our top cheese imports come from Europe—particularly, Italy, France, Spain, and the Netherlands, according to the USDA, which were subject to 20% EU tariffs before the 90-day pause. Gouda, brie, and Parmigiano-Reggiano cheeses are among the cheese that could increase in price, according to NPR.
Nuts
The World Bank reported that in 2023, the U.S. imported a majority of its nuts from Vietnam, Ivory Coast, Brazil, and Thailand. Pecans, cashews, and macadamia nuts could see the greatest price increases from the tariffs, NPR reported.
Additionally, America also exports nuts. The U.S. tree nut industry itself is now anticipating losses as they wait to see if Canada, China, and Mexico—this country’s main trading partners for pistachios, walnuts, almonds, hazelnuts, pecans, and macadamia nuts—will hit us with retaliatory tariffs.