Breaking down the Warriors’ possible playoff (and play-in) spots and the rest of the West chaos
With two games left in the regular season, the Warriors’ ultimate spot in the Western Conference standings is remarkably up in the air.
They could finish in fourth place in the West and have home-court advantage in a playoff series. They could also finish eighth, forcing them to win one of two play-in games to secure a playoff spot.
If they win Friday in Portland and Sunday over the Clippers at home, they will escape the play-in tournament. They lost control of their destiny Wednesday night when they blew a 14-point lead in a loss to the Spurs at home, then regained it when the Grizzlies lost to the Timberwolves on Thursday.
At 47-33, they currently sit sixth in the West, just a game behind No. 4 Denver (with the Clippers between) and tied with No. 7 Memphis and No. 8 Minnesota.
Here was their probability of finishing in each seed between No. 4 and No. 8 entering Thursday night, according to Basketball-Reference:
No. 4: 2.9 percent
No. 5: 12.3 percent
No. 6: 27.5 percent
No. 7: 27.4 percent
No. 8: 18.4 percent
If the Warriors end up in a two-way tie, they own head-to-head tiebreakers over the Grizzlies (3-1 record this season) and Timberwolves (3-1). They lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Nuggets (2-1) and Clippers (3-0, one game remaining). They also lose the tiebreaker to the Lakers, locking them out of the No. 3 seed.
A tie involving three or more teams is broken by comparing the teams’ records against one another. We won’t dive into each of the three- and four-team combinations out of this group of five, but here’s the upshot: If the Warriors win both remaining games, they are guaranteed a top-six spot. Their tiebreakers over both the Timberwolves and the Grizzlies mean a tie involving those three teams (even if others are also involved) locks Memphis and Minnesota below Golden State.
Division and conference records are next on the tiebreaker list, though the Clippers are the only other Pacific team in the group, and they have clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker over Golden State.
Below is some key information on each of the five teams in the mix with the Warriors through Thursday night:
No. 4: Denver Nuggets (48-32)
Remaining games: vs. Grizzlies (Friday), at Rockets (Sunday)
Head-to-head won: Warriors (2-1)
Head-to-head lost: Timberwolves (0-4)
Head-to-head undecided: Clippers (2-2), Grizzlies (1-1, play on Friday night)
Conference record: 30-20
No. 5: LA Clippers (48-32)
Remaining games: at Kings (Friday), at Warriors (Sunday)
Head-to-head won: Warriors (3-0, play Sunday), Grizzlies (3-0)
Head-to-head lost: Timberwolves (0-3)
Head-to-head undecided: Nuggets (2-2)
Conference record: 27-23
No. 6 Golden State Warriors (47-33, 1 game back)
Remaining games: at Trail Blazers (Friday), vs. Clippers (Sunday)
Head-to-head won: Timberwolves (3-1), Grizzlies (3-1)
Head-to-head lost: Nuggets (1-2), Clippers (0-3, play Sunday)
Head-to-head undecided: None
Conference record: 28-22
No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies (47-33, 1 game back)
Remaining games: at Nuggets (Friday), vs. Mavericks (Sunday)
Head-to-head won: Timberwolves (2-1)
Head-to-head lost: Clippers (0-3), Warriors (1-3)
Head-to-head undecided: Nuggets (1-1, play Friday)
Conference record: 26-23
No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves (47-33, 1 game back)
Remaining games: vs. Nets (Friday), vs. Jazz (Sunday)
Head-to-head won: Nuggets (4-0), Clippers (3-1)
Head-to-head lost: Warriors (1-3), Grizzlies (1-2, play Thursday)
Head-to-head undecided: None
Conference record: 32-19