What I’m Liking From Jhonkensy Noel So Far
He hits the ball hard.
Jhonkensy Noel has been one of my pleasant surprises so far in this young season.
Though none of the results have really popped out or was eye-opening, many underlying details at the plate have left me very hopeful and intrigued for how much he can actually impact the team this season.
My biggest concern for Jhonk headed into the year was his plate discipline. I’ve always felt like his stance has hindered his plate vision as it’s so closed off, allowing little ability for the head to be turned square to the pitcher.
Without both eyes having a clear sight on the ball, it will obviously then put a hindrance on a hitter’s ability to perceive pitches.
But so far, Jhonkensy has been seeing the ball a lot better than last year.
As of April 9th, Noel has had 24 PAs, and his chase rate is down 16%, while his zone swing rate is up 17.4%. He’s nearly cut his K rate in half and is walking a tiny bit more.
This is also showing to pay dividends in his batted ball data as well, as Jhonk is just punishing the ball. His average exit velo is nearing 93 mph, his hard hit rate is 55.6%, and it just seems like every game he posts a 105 mph or greater EV. The only problem is that every single one of these batted balls is getting absolutely hammered into the dirt. Like this 113 mph scorcher from yesterday’s game:
The earliest problem that is being seen with Noel is his tendency to either cause mass-extinction to the worms that live at Progressive Field or to hit more pop flies than Willie Mays Hayes.
Big Christmas just hasn’t been able to square the ball up much so far this season. Among qualified hitters, his sweet spot percentage is second to last in the league at 5.6%, only .8% higher than Taylor Walls.
However, I wouldn’t put that much stock into the belief that this will continue.
If Noel could get anywhere close to the 30% sweet spot rate that he was at last year (which shouldn’t be hard to do at all), he would become an absolute menace at the plate, assuming the aforementioned discipline numbers and EVs he’s put up this year persist as well.
To put things into perspective, Noel had the aforementioned 30% sweet spot percentage as well as an average exit velocity of 88 miles per hour. His barrel rate ended up being 15%.
I don’t think there is much reason to be worried about Jhonk’s launch angle. Throughout his minor league career, he never had a groundball rate close to the 50% rate he’s currently running. It’s cold and nippy throughout all of the Midwest right now, so once things warm up, I believe we’ll be seeing a lot more consistent barrels from Big Christmas.
The improved discipline at the plate and sustained exit velocities has me honestly excited to see this version of Jhonkensy, assuming everything else keeps up for the young slugger. And as long as things go right, we might have a guy who pitchers would be absolutely terrified to face come October.