Another layer of control

THE establishment’s growing oversight of key state institutions suggests a strategic pivot on its part to restore order within the governance system. While it has historically contributed to institutional dysfunction through martial laws and hybrid regimes, the establishment now appears to prefer a more structured role in steering the state apparatus. This shows a significant shift in its approach, ie, towards a ‘hard state’, and is exhibited in the reforms and restructuring of the state’s economic, judicial and governance structures as well as internal security.

Perhaps the recently approved formation of the ‘National Intelligence Fusion and Threat Assessment Centre’, of which the National Counter-Terrorism Authority will be a wing, can be seen in this context. The interior minister approved the establishment of Niftac recently while presiding over a meeting of the board of governors of Nacta. Establishing the new threat assessment body has been declared a vital step towards achieving strategic internal security objectives. Still, the idea of the body is not a unique one. A prototype of a ‘Joint Intelligence Directorate’ (JID) was established in 2016 after a long wait, and a brigadier-level officer was appointed as director general of the body. The idea was that the body would bring all civilian and non-civilian intelligence apparatuses under one roof, and their coordination would help to counter terrorism and internal security threats effectively.

As expected, the JID had not worked out, and the reason was that every intel agency wanted a monopoly over information and had its own mechanisms to assess the extent and nature of threats. Another significant factor is that civilian intelligence constitutes the eyes and ears of the civilian government, which causes friction with other intel agencies. However, the government is optimistic this time that Niftac will work because the civilian and military leadership are on the same page.

It may be useful to recall that the previous regimes of Imran Khan and Gen Bajwa were projected as being on the same page until the no-confidence move was launched against Khan in 2022. The Khan government had also approved the establishment of a similar body for better intelligence coordination under the supervision of the director general of the ISI; this body was called the National Intelligence Coordination Committee. Little is known about the NICC’s fate, but Nacta was also declared part of the body among the country’s two dozen intelligence agencies.

Creating a new threat assessment body is seen as vital to achieving internal security aims.

The government is also planning to set up threat assessment centres at the provincial level. However, the counterterrorism departments already have similar facilities, and Nacta has faced challenges in coordinating with the provincial CTDs as it did not have any legitimate cooperation mechanism. A former national coordinator at Nacta, Rai Tahir, proposed establishing a national CTD and bringing all the CTDs under its command, with Nacta being a secretariat for the national-level CTDs. The idea was to effectively and swiftly counter terrorism threats and reduce the reliance on military and paramilitary institutions. However, this idea has not really been appraised. After his departure from the body, reports appeared that the government had decided to appoint a major general as the new head of Nacta to make the institution more functional. However, the head of Niftac is also from the military, and he will look after the affairs of Nacta as well. The government has agreed on specific terms of the transition with the military establishment, and it will pacify the police as per the Nacta Act — the top position belongs to the police.

Last month, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also gave its nod to a composite security model, replacing security forces with police in areas that face a lower terrorist threat. The police were to assume security management in Buner and Upper Chitral districts within 15 days. However, security forces would continue to play a primary role in managing security in the highly volatile southern districts. Under the CSM, approved by the apex committee, police will receive arms, ammunition, and modern gadgets. The cabinet, chaired by Chief Minister Ali Amin Khan Gandapur, also approved Rs567.7 million for the police to procure equipment, according to an official statement.

Such provincial measures are directly related to countering terrorism threats, but it remains to be seen how these would be synchronised with the objectives of Niftac.

Apparently, like the NICC, the purpose of Niftac is also described as ensuring the effective implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP) and addressing emerging security challenges. However, if Niftac is going to replace Nacta, it would have the additional task of coordinating with those managing provincial security operations and feeding them information and actionable advice. Niftac would not have any operational role as was proposed for the National Counter Terrorism Department by Rai Tahir.

In fact, Niftac may have to revise NAP, which lost its focus when it was reviewed a few years back, and its 20 points were shortened to 14. While a few clauses from the original draft have been retained, some have been amended, and a few new ones have been included in the revised plan. However, the primary focus of NAP should be confined to terrorist groups, their nexuses, ideology, and support networks and must not include any politically motivated design. If it loses its focus on terrorism, it will lose its utility.

It is important for the government to dispel the impression that superior security institutions are encroaching on the domain of the civilian security institutions. This perception can further demoralise the police, especially in KP and Balochistan, where they are directly exposed to terrorism threats. The police are suffering from a bad image and involvement in malpractices, necessitating massive reforms to restore the confidence of the public in them and the system.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, April 13th, 2025