Navigating a changing military recruitment environment
While there is no question the American military faces persistent challenges in attracting qualified recruits, the much-discussed recruiting crisis that has dogged most service branches in recent years appears to be easing.
In a significant shift, last year saw gains in military recruiting across the services and most met their recruiting goals for the first time in years. While the improvement has not yet been the subject of rigorous statistical research, steps taken by Pentagon and the Congress to provide incentives for potential enlistees that are consistent with what past research shows are effective.
As of Fiscal Year 2024, all branches of the U.S. military, except the Navy, have successfully met their active duty enlisted recruiting missions. The Navy, while not meeting its overall mission, achieved its contract mission, a crucial milestone. This progress is particularly noteworthy given that only the Marine Corps and Space Force met their recruiting goals in FY 2023. As FY 2025 unfolds, the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps are not only meeting but exceeding their recruiting missions as of December, the latest month for which data is available.
Several factors have changed that past research shows that matter for military recruiting. The services have increased the number of recruiters and enhanced the selection and management processes for these roles. New marketing and advertising campaigns have been launched, and programs aimed at increasing enlistment eligibility, such as the Future Soldier Prep Courses in the Army and Navy, have been extensively utilized. Additionally, the use of waivers has been expanded.
A significant legislative change is also relevant: Congress increased military pay by 4.5% in January, with junior enlisted members receiving an additional 10% pay raise this April. This increase in compensation is a well-documented factor that boosts enlistment rates. The civilian unemployment rate for 16-24-year-olds has risen slightly since mid-2023, although it remains historically low. Past research indicates that enlistments tend to increase with higher junior enlisted pay, advertising, bonuses, the number of recruiters, and the unemployment rate.
Some have speculated that the improvement in recruiting is linked to the election. However, no rigorous statistical analysis has yet been conducted to assess the impact of the election or other factors on recruiting outcomes. Measuring changes in attitudes due to an election poses challenges in statistical analyses of recruiting, making it difficult to draw definitive conclusions without careful analysis.
While the current improvement is encouraging, it is essential to understand why the recruiting crisis occurred initially. Military leaders and policymakers have often cited low eligibility and propensity rates among young people as contributing factors. However, these rates have historically been low, even during years when recruiting goals were met, suggesting that these factors alone do not explain the crisis.
Looking ahead, the military services must focus on sustaining their recruiting success. This involves narrowing down the wide array of efforts to those that show the most promise. Concerns have been raised about the increased use of waivers and higher first-term attrition rates. However, RAND research indicates that first-term attrition has not historically been higher among recruits with waivers, except for those with drug or alcohol waivers. Moreover, first-term attrition appears to be below historic levels in the Army.
An area that requires attention is the quality of recruits. While the services have focused on meeting the required number of recruits, past research highlights the importance of recruit quality on subsequent performance in military tasks. Only the Air Force, Space Force, and Marine Corps have consistently meet quality benchmarks in FY 2025 through December. The Navy and Army rely heavily on the Future Soldier Prep Course to ensure recruits meet aptitude standards. However, it remains to be seen whether recruits who qualify through this course perform equivalently in their units compared to those who did not need the course.
The turnaround in military recruiting is a positive development, but sustaining this success will require a strategic focus on effective initiatives and maintaining recruit quality. As the services continue to adapt to changing conditions, it is crucial to build on the lessons learned from recent challenges and successes to ensure a robust and capable military force for the future.
Beth Asch is a senior principal economist at RAND.