Why Evan Mobley holds the keys to Cavs playoff success

The Cavaliers will go as far as Mobley takes them.

Evan Mobley has held the keys to a deep playoff run since the day he was drafted by the Cleveland Cavaliers. This season, he may finally be ready to turn the lock.

The Cavs enjoyed a brilliant regular season featuring bounce-back and breakout performances across the roster. None, however, are more important than the growth Mobley displayed in his fourth year.

Mobley averaged a career-high in points (18.4), matched his career high in assists (3.2) and fell just short of a career-best in rebounds (9.3). He did it all while playing his fewest minutes ever (30.5). This incredible efficiency has all the makings of a blooming superstar.

Per 36 minutes, Mobley posted 21.9 points and 10.9 rebounds. How much of Mobley’s production will scale up in the playoffs when he’s actually playing 36+ minutes a night?

Mobley played 36 or more minutes in six games this season. In that (small) sample size, he averaged more than 23 points per game, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks and a steal. That’s on par or better than his per-36 averages across the board.

So there’s nothing from the regular season that would lead us to doubt Mobley’s ability to dominate in the playoffs. He’s shown all he can to earn lofty expectations for the postseason. The only thing left is to prove it on the big stage.

Let’s look at a few key factors that will determine Mobley and the Cavs’ success in the playoffs.

Being a floor spacer

This one’s obvious.

One of Mobley’s key developments this season was his improvements as a three-point shooter. He made more three-pointers this year (85) than the rest of his career combined (67). That’s a pretty big leap.

His long-range efficiency isn’t as polished as someone like Kristaps Porzingis — but Mobley has done enough to space the floor and make his pairing with Jarrett Allen more feasible. This must continue to hold true in the playoffs.

Lineups featuring Mobley and Allen posted an offensive rating of 121.7 this season. That’s only slightly below their overall league-best rating of 122.5 points per 100 possessions and far better than when the bigs were together last year for a lackluster offensive rating of 112.8.

Below, we see Allen catch on the short roll and pass to Mobley for a three-pointer. In the past, Allen would be facing a crowded paint with Mobley buried in the dunker’s spot. Now? Mobley’s a catch-and-shoot threat from the wing.

Here is another example. Giannis Antetokounmpo is cheating off of Mobley in the corner to clog Allen’s roll to the rim. Donovan Mitchell makes an excellent skip pass to punish Giannis and create another Mobley three.

Of course, the Cavs as a whole are a vastly improved offense — but Mobley’s shooting is an undeniable factor here. It not only makes the Mobley/Allen pairing harder to deal with but gives the Cavs an option to go five-out in lineups that feature Mobley at center. They didn’t have this before.

Below, a lineup featuring Ty Jerome, Sam Merrill, Dean Wade, De’Andre Hunter and Mobley fully stretches Orlando’s defense to the point where not a single Magic defender is in the paint on this possession.

Furthermore, Mobley’s ability to draw a defender outside of the paint opens up one of the finer aspects of his game. He’s a genuine terror for opponents when he’s driving downhill to the rim.

Being a mismatch nightmare

The thing that makes Mobley special on offense is his speed and dexterity for a player of his size. Few seven-footers can match his strides and that has been an advantage for Mobley since he entered the league.

He’s always been able to burn slower defenders in space. But because of the increased spacing around him (partly due to his own creation), Mobley has had more opportunities to showcase that talent.

More importantly, Mobley is no longer restricted to attacking lesser athletes. He can lower his shoulder and bully opponents who are agile enough to stay connected but too small to ward him off from the rim. This is a breakthrough for Mobley.

Attacking smaller defenders makes Mobley a mismatch nightmare. You can’t stick a slower big on him. And you can’t adjust to a quicker defender who can match his speed if that defender isn’t big enough to outmuscle Mobley. A confident, aggressive Mobley is taking everyone’s lunch.

Even a more agile big like Naz Reid is hopeless, as Mobley showcases the full package by burrowing into the paint and then hitting a decel-step for a layup.

This will get harder for Mobley as the playoffs continue. But the longer he can put opposing coaches in a bind with his offensive production — the further the Cavs will go. Mobley being a matchup-hunter will give teams too much to juggle if the star guards around him are also wreaking havoc.