Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May at risk of losing their B.C. seats, poll aggregator projects
Neither the NDP nor the Green Party of Canada are expected to form government after April 28, and now it’s forecast that respective leaders Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May are in danger of losing their B.C. seats to a Liberal and a Conservative.
In Singh’s riding of Burnaby—South, poll aggregator 338Canada projects Liberal candidate Wade Wei Lin Chang to win with 38 per cent of the vote. Singh is forecast to finish third with 29 per cent behind the Conservatives’ James Yan, who clocks in at 32.
The margin of error for each projection is eight percentage points.
When first elected for Burnaby South in 2019, Singh took almost 38 per cent of the vote. He increased it to 40 per cent in 2021, per Elections Canada.
At the time of prime minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, 338Canada’s data gave him just over a 70 per cent chance of reclaiming his seat. In the following weeks, his odds fell and the likelihood of a Conservative win improved, only for both to be significantly overtaken by the Liberals once Mark Carney won the leadership.
If Thursday had been election day, Singh had a four per cent chance of being re-elected while Chang’s odds of turning the historically orange seat red were 81 per cent, per 338Canada.
Why Jagmeet Singh lost his cool during the French-language debate
Former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair said this week that Singh should surrender leadership if the party lose official party status.
Before the election was called, the party held 24 seats in the House, but polls since Trudeau’s departure show support dwindling much like Singh’s own fortunes. An election held on Thursday would yield just eight seats, 338Canada projects. Twelve seats are required to maintain status.
“He’s got to ensure he gets it,” Mulcair said during a CTV panel segment.
“I think he’s serene in his understanding of what it might mean for him, and I’m not getting any indication that he’s intent of fighting to stay on.”
Singh has been pointedly asked about his future during campaign stops.
In Winnipeg on Thursday morning , when it was put to him that his leadership is on the line, Singh replied, “What’s on the line in this election are working people and everyday families. That’s what I’m focused on.”
On Wednesday, during a campaign stop in Edmonton to pitch the party’s national rent control program, Singh was asked by reporters what kind of metric he’s looking for to justify staying on as leader.
“I’m never going to stop fighting for these people. I’m never going to back down,” he replied in an answer more focused on the rent issue of the day.
It was the same a day earlier in Vancouver , where he insisted his only focus is the remaining campaign ahead and not what happens after.
"We got five days left–I didn't hear any bell. Did you guys hear a bell? This fight's not over. We're here fighting every single day," says Jagmeet Singh when asked by a reporter how his party would fare if fewer NDP MPs are elected to the House of Commons.
— CPAC (@CPAC_TV) April 23, 2025
#cdnpoli #elxn2025 pic.twitter.com/3iqfaapxg2
Burnaby Central was established following the 2022 federal electoral boundaries redistribution, making it a new riding for 2025. And while it still consists of much of Singh’s original riding, it now encompasses parts of what were once Burnaby North—Seymour and New Westminster—Burnaby.
Since 2015, the latter has been held by New Democrat Peter Julian, who is now seeking re-election in New Westminster-Burnaby-Maillardville. 338Canada gives him a 49 per cent chance of winning, but he’s in a dog fight with the Liberals’ Jake Sawatzky (45 per cent).
Burnaby North—Seymour, meanwhile, has been a Liberal seat occupied by Terry Beech since 2015, but never without stiff NDP competition at the polls.
Beech wants to go back to Ottawa, and 338Canada gives him 99 per cent chance to win.
May not ready to retire
Meanwhile, across the Strait of Georgia in Saanich—Gulf Islands, May is trailing Conservative candidate Cathie Ounsted as the campaign winds down.
As of Thursday, the long-time Green leader and member of parliament is deadlocked at 34 per cent with her Tory opponent, with respective margins of error of eight and seven percentage points, per 338Canada . Liberal David Beckham is not far behind with a projected 24 per cent.
Ounsted has a 52 per cent chance of winning an election held on Thursday, according to 338Canada. May stands at 48.
“There are many things I want to accomplish before I decide I’m going to retire, and I want to keep working,” she told The Tyee last week.
The coastal riding has been May’s since 2011 when she became the first Green MP elected to the House by defeating Gary Lunn, who’d held the seat since 1997 for the Reform Party, the Canadian Alliance and then the Conservatives under prime minister Stephen Harper.
May went on to collect more than 54 per cent of the ballots in 2015, having won every poll in the riding, and just under 50 in 2019. Her margin of victory shrank in the 2021 election when she secured the win with only 37.6 per cent in the face of stiff competition from the Liberal and Conservative representatives.
In an interview with the Times Colonist this week, May noted that the riding has historically been some shade of Conservative, so the challenge doesn’t surprise her.
“They have a base here and they turn out their supporters. And right now, it’s a two-way race between the Conservative and me. So it doesn’t feel all that different.”
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