Revisiting our Penguins 2024-25 over/under predictions: How did everybody do?
We got some right. We got some wrong.
Before the start of the 2024-25 NHL season, we put together some over/under polls to try and get a sense for what people’s expectations were for several of the Pittsburgh Penguins players.
New faces that joined the team in the offseason.
Core players that are still expected to be faces of the franchise.
Secondary players that were going to need to step up and help with the offense.
Now that the 2024-25 season is complete, it is time to take a look back at how we did in our predictions and guesses.
The New guys
Blake Lizotte: Over/under 10.5 goals.
Poll result: Over (52 percent)
On-ice result: Over with 11 goals (in 59 games)
Kevin Hayes: Over/under 40.5 points
Poll result: Under (57 percent)
On-ice result: Under with 23 points (in 64 games)
Anthony Beauvillier: Over/under 15.5 goals
Poll result: Under (54 percent)
On-ice result: Under with 13 goals (in 63 games — combined with the Capitals he scored exactly 15 goals)
Matt Grzelyck: Over/under 20.5 points
Poll result: Under (54 percent)
On-ice result: Over with 40 points
In the cases of Blake Lizotte and Anthony Beauvillier we all ended up being pretty close. Lizotte narrowly topped the 10.5 goal line we set despite missing a significant chunk of the season, while Beauvillier ended up getting extremely close to the 15-goal mark between Pittsburgh and Washington.
I badly over-estimated what Hayes could do offensively, but the readers did not. He barely made it halfway to the over/under.
Everybody under-estimated what Grzelyck could do offensively as he took on a significantly larger power play role than probably anybody had originally expected. He ended up doubling his preseason over/under that was set. His defensive play was a problem, but his offense was a pleasant surprise.
The secondary players
Bryan Rust: Over/under 30.5 goals
Poll result: Under (72 percent)
On-ice result: Over with 31 goals
Michael Bunting: Over/under 25.5 goals
Poll result: Over (53 percent)
On-ice result: Under with 14 goals in 58 games (including Nashville he had 19 goals for the season)
Rickard Rakell: Over/under 25.5 goals
Poll result: Over (73 percent)
On-ice result: Over with 35 goals
Drew O’Connor: Over/under 15.5 goals
Poll result: Over (81 percent)
On-ice result: Under with 6 goals in 53 games (he scored 10 goals in 84 games including his time with the Vancouver Canucks
There is something very fitting about everybody overwhelmingly under-estimating Bryan Rust, only to see him exceed expectations and have a huge season. He topped the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career and just barely hit our pre-season over by scoring 31 goals for the season. His entire career has been defined by exceeding expectations, and this season turned out to be no different. There is still some juice left in him.
Rakell was the other player that significantly out-performed the preseason expectations and also ended up with a career year, scoring 35 goals while getting a ton of top-line time next to Sidney Crosby. He was outstanding.
We all had some big whiffs on what Michael Bunting and Drew O’Connor were going to be capable of. Having said that, I think they were realistic preseason expectations. O’Connor scored 16 goals a year ago and there was probably some hope he could at least match that, and perhaps even build on it. Bunting had averaged more than 20 goals per 82 games in each of the previous three seasons, and I don’t think it was unreasonable to expect a small bump given the centers he was going to have an opportunity to play alongside.
The core players
Sidney Crosby: Over/under 90.5 points
Poll result: Over (76 percent)
On-ice result: Over with 91 points in 80 games
Evgeni Malkin: Over/under 75.5 points
Poll result: Under (66 percent)
On-ice result: Under with 50 points in 68 games
Kris Letang: Over/under 50.5 points
Poll result: Over (53 percent)
On-ice result: Under with 30 points in 74 games
Erik Karlsson: Over/under 60.5 points
Poll result: Over (84 percent)
On-ice result: Under with 53 points in 82 games
Look at Sidney Crosby go. The captain still has it, is not really slowing down, and just keeps plugging along with 90 point seasons even as he gets deeper into his 30s. He pretty much hit the over/under right on the money, and nobody was really surprised by that. He will probably do it again next season.
My expectations for Malkin were a little higher, but the readers were more reasonable and ended up getting it right as Malkin finished with just 50 points 68 games. I thought there were stretches where Malkin still showed some of that burst and impact ability, but it was not as consistent as we have seen from him in the past. I do wonder what impact having better, more consistent linemates could/will have for him.
We all badly missed on Kris Letang. He has slowed down more — and more rapidly — than pretty much every other member of the core group. While Crosby is still consistently dominating, and while Malkin is still showing flashes of it, we did not really see any of that from Letang this season.
There were big expectations for Erik Karlsson offensively, with more than 84 percent of reasons expecting him to go over 60.5 points. He ended up reaching 53 points, which was still enough to be among the top-15 among the league’s defensemen. Very good, but not great. Combined with his defensive performance, it was an underwhelming season across the board.