Series Preview: Twins at Guardians

An early measuring stick series

The Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins will meet for the first time in 2025 for a four-game series at Progressive Field, beginning tonight.

The Guardians are 15-12 with a -18 run differential (a 13-3 loss’ll do that to you), and 6-4 in their last 10 games. They are 15th in MLB with a 101 wRC+, 28th in MLB in baserunning runs above average at -2.4, 17th in Defense at -4.4, 26th in starting pitching SIERA at 4.80, and seventh in bullpen SIERA at 3.16. The Twins are 12-16 with a -2 run differential, also 6-4 in their last 10 games. They are 21st in MLB with a 94 wRC+, sixth in baserunning runs above average at 2.8, 20th in Defense at -5.4, fourth in starting pitcher SIERA at 3.60, and tenth in bullpen SIERA at 3.29.

In just looking under the hood a little bit, the Twins are eighth in MLB with a 42.1% hard-hit rate, while Cleveland is last in MLB with 36.1%. The Guardians are better at pulling fly balls, slightly better at walking and avoiding strikeouts, and they’ve been about twice as good as the Twins at hitting in the clutch. So, let me be completely objective, here: on paper, you’d probably be smarter to bet on a healthy Twins’ offense being better than the Guardians. But with players like Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and rookie sensation Luke Keachall on the IL, Cleveland should have an advantage even as Carlos Correa comes out of an early season slump. As Guardians’ fans, we’re hoping for Nolan Jones to get to more of the home runs he finally hit one of last series, for Carlos Santana to come out of his April haze, and for players like Brayan Rocchio and Bo Naylor to hit closer to their xwOBA’s than their wOBA’s. Oh, and David Fry to come back and be David Fry. But, at a purely objective analysis’ level, the Twins look like a better team than the Guardians’ IF they can get some hitters healthy again and their run differential shows that. This MAY be a good time to catch Minnesota and the Guardians should try to take advantage of that.

Matchups:
Game One, Monday, 6:10PM EDT: Bailey Ober, RHP, 4.12 SIERA vs. Gavin Williams, RHP, 4.05 SIERA
Game Two, Tuesday, 6:10PM EDT: Chris Paddack, RHP, 4.68 SIERA vs. Tanner Bibee, RHP 4.98 SIERA
Game Three, Wednesday, 6:10PM EDT: Pablo Lopez, RHP 3.40 SIERA vs. Luis Ortiz, RHP, 3.88 SIERA
Game Four, Thursday, 1:10PM EDT: Simeon Woods-Richardson, RHP, 3.68 SIERA vs. Ben Lively, RHP, 4.60 SIERA

Analysis:
If the Guardians want to secure at least a split in this series, on paper, it looks crucial to find a way to win games 1 and 2 with Williams and Bibee having more advantageous pitching matchups. Cleveland will look to control Byron Buxton at 116 wRC+, Harrison Bader at 116 wRC+, and Trevor Larnach at 108 wRC+. The Twins will deal with Steven Kwan at 165 wRC+, Angel Martinez at 138 wRC+, Kyle Manzardo at 136 wRC+, Gabriel Arias (hopefully if healthy) at 130 wRC+, Austin Hedges at 123 wRC+, Jose Ramirez at 118 wRC+, and Daniel Schneemann at 109 wRC+. Jose had a rough past week and it would be nice to see him finish the month of April strong, especially.