Carney’s Liberals win Canada election defined by Trump

Prime Minister Mark Carney won Canada’s election on Monday, local media projected, leading his Liberal Party to a new term in power after convincing voters his experience managing economic crises prepared him to confront United States President Donald Trump.

The public broadcaster CBC and other outlets projected the Liberals would form Canada’s next government, but it was not yet clear if they would hold a majority in parliament.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre fell short of becoming prime minister, but his party was on track to form a strong opposition in parliament

Trump’s trade war and threats to annex Canada — which he renewed in an election day social media post — outraged Canadians and made dealing with the US a top campaign issue.

Carney, who had never held elected office and only replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister last month, anchored his campaign on an anti-Trump message.

He previously served as central bank governor in both Britain and Canada and persuaded voters his global financial experience has prepared him to guide Canada through a trade war.

Carney, who also had a lucrative career as investment banker before joining Canada’s public service, promised to expand overseas trading relations to curb Canada’s reliance on the United States.

Carney’s descriptions of the Trump threat have been stark.

“Donald Trump wants to break us so America can own us,” he said during the campaign.

“They want our resources, they want our water, they want our land, they want our country. They can’t have it.”

When the CBC projection was announced, cheers of joy erupted at the Ottawa venue where Liberal supporters were watching the results.

“I’m happy in the sense that we’ve got somebody that can speak to Mr. Trump on his level,” said Dorothy Goubault, 72. “Mr. Trump is a business person. Mr. Carney is a business person, and I think they can both relate.”

Before Trudeau resigned, Trump had mocked him, calling the prime minister “governor” as he urged Canada to become the 51st US state.

Goubault said she expects that mockery to stop.

“It’s not the governor anymore, it’s the prime minister of Canada, and it’s not the 51st state anymore. It’s ‘We are Canada!’”

Liberal lawmaker and a member of Carney’s cabinet, Steven Guilbeault, tied the outcome to Trump.

“The numerous attacks by President Trump on the Canadian economy, but not just the economy, on our sovereignty and our very identity, I think have really mobilised Canadians, and I think they saw in Prime Minister Carney someone who has experience on the world stage,” he told the CBC.

Trudeau’s departure

The departure of former prime minister Justin Trudeau was also crucial to the Liberal win, which capped one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Canadian political history.

On January 6, the day Trudeau announced he would resign, the Conservatives led the Liberals by more than 20 points in most polls, as voter anger over soaring coasts mounted after Trudeau’s decade in power.

But Carney replacing Trudeau, combined with nationwide unease about Trump, transformed the race.

Carney, 60, distanced himself from Trudeau throughout the campaign.

He said the former prime minister did not focus enough on growing Canada’s economy and scrapped a controversial Trudeau tax on carbon emissions that left many voters seething.

For Poilievre, a 45-year-old who has been in parliament for two decades, the outcome marks a stinging defeat.

He was criticised for the at-times muted anger he directed towards Trump, but said he wanted to keep the focus on domestic concerns that drove Trudeau’s unpopularity.

He tried to persuade voters that Carney would simply offer a continuation of the failed Liberal governance, an argument that fell short.

At the Conservative watch party in Ottawa, Jason Piche told AFP he was surprised by the result.

“I was hoping to have a big celebration tonight,” Piche said.

Nearly 29 million of Canada’s 41 million people were eligible to vote in the massive G7 country that spans six time zones. A record 7.3 million people cast advanced ballots.

Results were still pending on the shape of Canada’s 343 members of parliament, with 172 seats needed for a majority. The Liberals won a majority in 2015 but have governed with a minority since 2019.