Tony Talk: Breaking down those surprise nominations and early winner predictions for ‘Maybe Happy Ending,’ ‘Sunset Boulevard,’ and more
Welcome to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. Days after the 2025 Tony nominations were announced, we reconvene to reflect on the biggest surprises and offer our take on where the top categories now stand.
David Buchanan: Tony Award nominations were announced last Thursday, and they're already reverberating throughout the industry. On the plus side, many nominated performers made history, including Audra McDonald, Danny Burstein, and Daniel Dae Kim, but unfortunately we've already seen our first closing notice for Idina Menzel's Redwood. This will be a crucial time for many newer shows that are looking for a ray of box-office sunshine from the recognition, no matter how many or few bids they received. Buena Vista Social Club has already been doing great numbers, but I was pleasantly surprised that it exceeded our nominations expectations and tied for the most overall at 10. What shocked you the most on Thursday morning?
Sam Eckmann: I was honestly floored that Real Women Have Curves failed to make the cut for Best Musical. It is a superb showcase of musical storytelling and features all the hallmarks of a Tony nominee: a relevant story that tugs at the heart, lived-in performances, and a mid-show standing ovation. At least featured actress Justina Machado and the score were recognized. I think we both expected (or, at least hoped for) more expanded categories due to ties in voting. Given how strong the season is, I would have welcomed a sixth nomination slot for Best Musical, lead musical actress, featured play actress, and several design categories. Instead, only the two lead actor races saw an additional nominee. Best Musical went with the five odds leaders: Buena Vista Social Club, Dead Outlaw, Death Becomes Her, Maybe Happy Ending, and Operation Mincemeat. Based on the overall nominations lineup, has the race shifted for you?
Buchanan: I wholeheartedly agree that this season should have warranted more expanded categories. It is mind-boggling that there wasn't a close enough vote tally in the lead actress musical race to get Helen J Shen a nomination, considering they loved Maybe Happy Ending as much as we thought they would. Not much has changed in my predictions for Best Musical. I had Dead Outlaw in first place all throughout the nominations phase, and I do think it remains a strong contender given that it appeared in all of the key races. But I now have Maybe Happy Ending out front and Dead Outlaw in second. With the exception of Shen, who was in an impossibly hard category, Maybe Happy Ending didn't miss any pivotal nominations and is tied for the most overall. If anything, I will take Buena Vista more seriously as a spoiler, though it would have to become the frontrunner for either Original Book or Director to convince me that it could actually prevail. How about you? Do you see a path for Death Becomes Her? It is definitely a unique offering in this category as a musical comedy, but how does it square with the recent trend of Tony-winning Best Musicals?
SEE Instant Tony odds: ‘Oh, Mary!’ and ‘Maybe Happy Ending’ are the extremely early shows to beat
Eckmann: Death Becomes Her is bolstered by the fact that it's tied for most nominations overall, and it has a unique campy comedy style that no other Best Musical nominee possesses. I still have Maybe Happy Ending in first place due to its emotional pull, but I can see Death Becomes Her spoiling for Book of a Musical, a category where comedy often finds a path to victory. In terms of musical revivals, Gypsy was dealt a blow when George C. Wolfe failed to garner a best director bid. Though it did manage nominations for Camille A. Brown in choreography and Joy Woods in featured actress, when neither one was guaranteed. Its closest rival, Sunset Boulevard, scored a nomination for director Jamie Lloyd, but failed to get in any featured performers or its choreographer. Since the success of revivals are often closely tied to their director's visions, Lloyd's nomination may be the tie breaker in this titanic battle. Who do you think wins that race? And we have to discuss Revival of a Play, where nominators totally rejected the still-running movie star-led productions.
Buchanan: I had been worrying about Wolfe's nomination for a while and only had him in my final slot in my lineup. I think what held him back, and what may falter Gypsy's prospects in revival, is that in its staging itself, the production feels very straightforward, even though it radically and historically cast Black women as Rose, Louise, and June. The revival competition reminds me a bit of 2019, when Oklahoma! and Kiss Me, Kate went head-to-head. Even though the former proved very divisive, director Daniel Fish delivered an indubitably bold reimagining of the work and it won over a very conventional staging of Kate. For that very reason, I agree that Sunset Boulevard wins the top prize. To your question about Play Revival, I can't imagine the producers of Glengarry Glen Ross or Othello are too devastated about their lack of noms given how their box-office receipts continue to top $2 million and $3 million, respectively. This race feels like a real squeaker between Eureka Day and Yellow Face. Neither got nominations for their directors or in any categories outside of acting, but I can envision a Tony night where they both win acting prizes (Jessica Hecht for Eureka and Francis Jue for Yellow Face). It may come down to what resonated more with the voters, or perhaps the PBS taping of Yellow Face will help put it over the top. Do you see a clear victor between the two?
Eckmann: I was lucky enough to attend the premiere screening of the Yellow Face video capture, and it translates remarkably well on camera. The fact that PBS's Great Performances will begin airing this on May 16, when Tony voters will be thinking about their ballots, could be the deciding factor as to what breaks the tied race between this David Henry Hwang play and Eureka Day. There is a startling conversation in Yellow Face where a reporter tells the character played by Daniel Dae Kim that there is a conflict between being Chinese and American, yet there is no such conflict if you're white. The entire screening room recoiled in this visceral way. In light of the deportations carried out by the Trump administration, the themes of Yellow Face clearly feel more immediate now than they did just a few months ago when it played Broadway. Elsewhere, the lack of passion for Glengarry Glen Ross provides a clearer path to victory for Oh, Mary! featured player Conrad Ricamora. I don't see Bob Odenkirk winning on Glengarry's sole nomination, and Ricamora has a Tony IOU after being cruelly snubbed for Here Lies Love. Now the actor is in a Best Play frontrunner. Speaking of that race, I still have the Cole Escola comedy out front, but John Proctor Is the Villain is certainly encroaching on the top spot. Gabriel Ebert and Fina Strazza were nominated in extremely competitive featured acting races, and the show has activated young theater fans in a major way. Does John Proctor, or any other nominee, have a shot at dethroning Mary Todd Lincoln?
Buchanan: I think there may actually be a three-way race for Best Play brewing. Aside from juggernaut Oh, Mary!, there's John Proctor, which did indeed over-perform expectations and has that key nomination for director Danya Taymor. I also wouldn't rule out Purpose. Yes, it did miss a directing nom for Phylicia Rashad, but it unexpectedly got five of its six cast members nominated, and Branden Jacobs-Jenkins could very well win the Pulitzer Prize this week for the play. As we repeatedly say, this award is as much for its playwright as the production, and few contemporary American playwrights are as esteemed as he is these days.
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