Horse Sense: House Republicans work to pass 'big, beautiful bill'

We’re in the interlude between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

Derby winner Sovereignty won’t run in the Preakness coming up in Baltimore.

But House Republicans aren’t skipping out on trying to finish the big, beautiful bill. And if this were a horse race, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., would dare the pony players to bet against House Republicans when it comes to wrapping things up.

"Stop doubting us. We're going to get this job done," said Johnson about the plan to renew tax cuts and slash spending.

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House Republicans aren’t exactly maidens here. But the morning line might suggest House Republicans are due to lose in this sweepstakes.

Like the Triple Crown, there are three steps to this legislative tournament. And Republicans are now on to the final leg of a legislative trifecta.

It was a photo finish in February when House Republicans barely adopted the framework for the tax cut and spending reduction measure. The House GOP leadership appeared to make the vote a late scratch - with Members fleeing the Capitol, only to have them recalled to the House chamber moments later. The Republican leadership brass shored up support for the plan and the House passed it.

It was a repeat in April when House Republicans tried to align with the Senate on their version of the blueprint. Republicans managed to lug the framework across the finish line by a nose, 216-214. Flip one vote and that would have produced a tie. A tie vote would have sent the big, beautiful bill out to a big, beautiful pasture.

House Republicans were only in the money on the Senate framework after conservatives secured some commitments from Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., that senators would make substantial spending cuts.

But when it comes to actually finishing this version of the bill, House Republicans are barely a furlong into the race.

A debate rages about what Republicans should address in the bill. Passage hinges on what’s in or out.

"Everybody's going to have to give, including, the SALT provision," said Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., referring to a potential deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT. "There's a happy medium that will have to be met to get the cuts."

Moderate Republicans from high tax states like New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey will demand the deduction in order to secure their votes for the entire plan. Norman noted that "each individual state's going to have to have some pain" before this goes to the finish line.

"We're going to find the equilibrium point on SALT that no one will be totally delighted with," said Johnson. "But it'll solve the equation and we'll get it done."

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"We're in a very good place as it relates to not just the SALT deduction," said Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, R-N.Y., "The people like the ones I represent in Staten Island and Brooklyn desperately need this relief because our mayor and our governor keep hammering us over the head with high taxes."

There are also items President Trump insists that lawmakers tuck into the bill.

"No tax on tips. No tax on overtime," echoed House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La.

But the toughest decisions of all center around changes – or cuts – to entitlement programs. Republicans have bandied around the idea that they could save up to $550 billion from waste and fraud in Medicaid over a decade. But there’s evidence that figure is markedly lower. Republicans disagree.

"Some of the information we’ve uncovered would indicate that (the improper payments figure) is much higher," said Johnson. "We’re going to try to eliminate that. And I think we owe that to the taxpayers."

But Democrats aren’t buying that.

"They’re lying to the American people," said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.

Democrats argue Republicans might cook the books to cover the cost of the tax breaks and shore up possible holes in the deficit.

"They’re going to make up whatever numbers they want," said Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J., the ranking Democrat on Energy and Commerce Committee. "They know they can't reach these numbers."

One item expected in the bill: a major hike in the debt ceiling.

"When is X date?" asked Rep. Steve Womack, R-Ark., of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing.

The "X date" refers to when the federal government exhausts its ability to cover its obligations.

"As an outfielder running for a fly ball, we are on the warning track. When you’re on the warning track, it means the wall is not that far away," replied Bessent.

Or, coming up the side rail.

But Bessent added that the government "will not default."

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Lawmakers grilled cabinet members about trimming departments at hearings this week. Such was the case when Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins appeared before a Senate panel.

"You are taking a meat cleaver approach. There's that old adage. Measure twice. Cut once. You guys have been cutting without measuring," charged Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H.

"I've not cut anything yet," responded Collins.

The Secretary added that there was a "goal" to restructure his department and cut significant numbers of jobs.

"Do you want to reach your goal or not?" asked Hassan.

"The goal is not a fact," replied Collins.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also found herself testifying about efforts to shrink her department before another Senate panel. She conceded that slimming government is hard.

"Have we done it perfectly? No. Any type of scale change and big effort to basically realign an entire government agency is difficult," said Rollins.

Democrats warn that Republicans will rue the day when they approve deep cuts.

"Each Republican who votes for reconciliation and bad budgets will be left holding that hot potato," said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer," D-N.Y.

One senior House conservative told Fox they thought passing the bill would be "easy" compared to the other two rounds. Another conservative and a moderate Republican argued it would be harder. Much harder.

The best gamblers know that it’s best to quit when you’re ahead. House Republicans managed to eke out victories in the first two rounds. One argument is that they have momentum. Horse sense would tell you that the odds are against them.

But this is Capitol Hill. And you never know how things are going to turn out.

Mike Johnson and Republicans have no other choice. They promised the public they would pass the bill. President Trump expects it. There are no other options.

Pacing is everything in horseracing. A good jockey knows how to coax a burst of energy out of their horse at the right minute. When to give them the whip.

We’re looking at you, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn.

So the crowd is roaring. The hooves are thundering. Mud and dirt are flying. The stewards are watching.

Johnson contends the House isn’t off the pace with its goal of passing the package by Memorial Day. But Republicans are trying to pass a very complex bill with a tiny majority. It’s like running on a sloppy track. Republicans gallop down the homestretch soon.

The next few weeks will be a wild ride.