The NBA Draft lottery will never escape allegations of being rigged

Another year, another fix in.

The endless debate over whether or not the NBA Draft Lottery is rigged has always been a logical vs. emotional affair — like all conspiracy theories tend to be. Logically speaking there’s no conceivable way it can rigged. Not only does that rely on an idea that everyone who oversees the lottery is somehow in on it and nobody leaked any information, but it also opens the league up to incredible litigation.

So sure, ask me in October and I’ll probably laugh off the idea of the lottery being rigged — but after that shit last night? Give me a break.

In case you missed it: The Dallas Mavericks magically found a way to use their 1.8% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick to move up from 11th overall and win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. It’s truly remarkable luck just months after the team traded away Luka Doncic to the Lakers, helping to solidify the NBA’s biggest, most-lucrative team in one of the league’s most important markets.

This was also accompanied by more notable teams jumping up at the expense of smaller markets, with the Spurs jumping from No. 8 to No. 2, a move with will allow San Antonio to pair a star with Victor Wembanyama, and the Sixers moving up from No. 5 to No. 3 — at the expense of the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets.

• The Mavericks had a 1.8% chance of getting No. 1 overall
• The Spurs had a 6.3% chance of getting No. 2 overall
• The Sixers had a 10.6% chance of getting No. 3 overall

While calculating the actual odds of this happening are far too difficult for my monkey brain to comprehend, as each event is not independent of each other, suffice it to say we can call these odds “astronomical.”

And see, “astronomical” things happen. These are sports we’re talking about. We see the improbable become realized on a nightly basis, and moments that seem impossible come to life every single season.

The issue is that this just keeps happening in when it comes to the NBA Draft Lottery — over, and over, and over again. It also keeps repeating when a team trades away its star player in the prior season. So it’s only natural when this is the collective response.

At this point there’s no reason to take the NBA at its word that the lottery process is above board, because we’ve seen this happen far too many times. In the last 15 years a total of __ team have jumped to the No. 1 pick from single-digit percentage chances, often after a major player change.

• 2011: Cleveland Cavaliers move to No. 1 to take Kyrie Irving from a 2.8% chance after LeBron James leaves for the Miami Heat
• 2012: New Orleans Pelicans move to No. 1 to take Anthony Davis from a 13.7% chance after the team trades Chris Paul to the Clippers
• 2014: Cleveland Cavaliers move to No. 1 to take Andrew Wiggins from a 1.7% chance after team continues to struggle from LeBron leaving
• 2019: New Orleans Pelicans move to No. 1 to take Zion Williamson from a 6% chance after trading Anthony Davis to the Lakers
• 2025: Dallas Mavericks move to No. 1 to (presumably) take Cooper Flagg from a 1.8% chance after trading Luka Doncic to the Lakers

If we simply look at brass tacks with the No. 1 overall pick all these scenarios had implied odds of happening 26 times out of 500, or a cumulative percentage of 5.2%. If we didn’t have empirical evidence why the NBA would pay back franchises for helping big market teams it would be one thing, but this just keeps happening over, and over, and over again.

Nothing will change. We’ll be back here in four years when the Las Vegas Mavericks win the No. 1 overall pick from low odds after trading Cooper Flagg to the Los Angeles Lakers. We’ll complain once more, and the basketball will keep spinning.

Sorry to the fans of the Jazz, Wizard and Hornets — because y’all were screwed.