GOP tax bill would make the rich even richer—at poor people's expense

President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" that House Republicans are trying to ram through the chamber would be the "largest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in a single law in U.S. history," according to a report published Wednesday by the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank.

The bill, if passed, would lead to at least 13.7 million people losing their health insurance. It would also impose massive cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program—better known as “food stamps”—that would put nearly 11 million people at risk of losing the ability to feed their families. And it will make college more expensive by eliminating subsidized federal student loans, meaning loans would start accruing interest as soon as students take them out rather than once they leave school.

And Republicans are doing all of this only to partly pay for an extension of the tax cuts they passed in 2017, which have overwhelmingly benefited the richest taxpayers while giving the lowest-income Americans pennies. Data from Congress’ Joint Committee on Taxation found that the bottom 20% of taxpayers would see their annual after-tax income increase by just $90, which amounts to $7.50 per month. Meanwhile, the top 1% of earners would get a $64,770 annual tax cut. 

"Taken as a whole, this bill would harm Americans—particularly the most vulnerable people—and leave the country worse off,” the Center for American Progress wrote in their analysis of the bill. “It would lead to preventable deaths by taking health care away from millions of people. It would worsen food insecurity by taking food away from the hungry, particularly kids. It would leave the United States on a significantly worse fiscal trajectory by adding trillions of dollars to structural deficits. Budgets showcase our morality because they force governments to decide how to prioritize limited resources. The House Republican budget plan would shift funding away from the sick and hungry and, instead, toward the wealthiest Americans."

The only good thing from this crap sandwich of a bill is that, as of right now, it does not look like it will pass. Currently, it does not appear to have the votes in the House. 

A contingent of Republican lawmakers from New York and California say they will not vote for the bill because it does not raise the amount of state and local tax deductions their constituents can take. 

“​​The SALT cap figure put forward by House leadership falls short. For now, it’s gonna be a hard NO from me,” Republican Rep. Mike Lawler of New York wrote on X on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, hard-line Republicans are mad the bill doesn’t make even more cuts to Medicaid.

“Delaying work requirements for able-bodied adults on Medicaid to 2029 isn't ‘progress.’ It's fiscally irresponsible and another sad excuse for the swamp!!” Rep. Ralph Norman, Republican of South Carolina, wrote in a post on X, referring to the fact that some of the Medicaid cuts don’t take immediate effect in the GOP bill.

“The GOP must decide - will it cement Obamacare’s deeply flawed (purposeful) Medicaid expansion to the healthy, single, able-bodied (often male) - which shafts 1) the vulnerable population & 2) non-expansion states (like TX) & will push those states to expand. We must not,” Rep. Chip Roy, Republican of Texas, wrote in a post on X.

Even if the bill does pass the House, it will have serious problems passing the Senate as written.

Republican Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri said he won’t vote for the legislation because it cuts Medicaid—a stance he’s taken to try to build up his working-class bona fides ahead of a possible 2028 presidential run.

“This is real Medicaid benefit cuts. I can't support that,” Hawley told CNN’s Manu Raju. “No Republican should support that. We're the party of the working class. We need to act like it.”

And Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who objects to the fact that the bill will add trillions to the deficit, told Politico on Wednesday that the bill is currently "the Titanic" because it's “going down.”

“I think that’s going down because I think I have enough colleagues in the Senate that this has resonated with, that say, ‘Yeah, we have to return to a reasonable pre-pandemic spending,’” Johnson told Politico.

If the House passes the bill and the Senate then amends it, the House will have to pass it again. And if the Senate sends back a bill with fewer Medicaid cuts, then the hard-liners could revolt and sink the legislation there.

In sum, things look complicated for GOP leadership.

But never underestimate Republicans’ spinelessness. If Trump issues threats or even merely asks Republicans to do what he says, they will likely cave.

In the meantime, contact your lawmakers and tell them not to cut Medicaid to pay for tax cuts for the rich. 

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