‘The Last of Us’ Emmy odds shake-up: With Kaitlyn Dever going guest, Isabela Merced jumps up in supporting
Last week, HBO announced that The Last of Us scene-stealer Kaitlyn Dever would be campaigning as a guest star, as opposed to a supporting actress, for the zombie apocalypse drama. That left an opening in Gold Derby's Best Drama Supporting Actress Emmy odds that has since been filled by ... drumroll, please ... her costar Isabela Merced.
Dever plays Abby, a soldier who seeks revenge against Joel (Pedro Pascal) in Season 2 for the death of her father in Season 1. Since Dever has only appeared in two episodes (so far), she's eligible to compete as a guest star for The Last of Us because of the TV Academy's "less than 50 percent" ruling. The 28-year-old will also be on the Emmy ballot for Apple Cider Vinegar in Best Limited Series/Movie Actress.
Merced is another newcomer to The Last of Us this year, playing the free-spirited Dina, the romantic interest of Ellie (Bella Ramsey) and the ex-girlfriend of Jesse (Young Mazino). Before her breakout role on The Last of Us, the 23-year-old was best known for her performances in Transformers: The Last Knight, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, and Sicario: Day of the Soldado.
The Last of Us is currently in second place in Best Drama Series, trailing only Severance. Ramsey is the runner-up in Best Drama Actress, behind frontrunner Kathy Bates (Matlock). And Pascal is in fourth place for Best Drama Actor, following Noah Wyle (The Pitt), Adam Scott (Severance), and Gary Oldman (Slow Horses).
SEE 2025 Emmy Awards calendar: Key dates
Below are the current Emmy predictions in 16 top categories, updated May 16. You can see how the races have evolved over time by examining our previous Emmy snapshots on March 19, March 28, April 7, April 15, April 23, April 29, and May 7.
Gold Derby's Emmy odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 2,500 people (and counting), including experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the Emmy predictions by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in the TV forums.
BEST DRAMA SERIES
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Severance — 9/2
2. The Last of Us — 11/2
3. The Pitt — 6/1
4. The White Lotus — 13/2
5. Slow Horses — 8/1
6. The Diplomat — 19/2
7. Andor — 11/1
8. Squid Game — 22/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Paradise, The Handmaid's Tale, The Day of the Jackal, High Potential, Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light, House of the Dragon
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Kathy Bates (Matlock) — 10/3
2. Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us) — 4/1
3. Keri Russell (The Diplomat) — 5/1
4. Britt Lower (Severance) — 5/1
5. Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — 9/1
6. Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets) — 15/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Keira Knightley (Black Doves), Carrie Preston (Elsbeth), Kaitlin Olson (High Potential), Helen Mirren (1923), Zoe Saldaña (Lioness), Nicola Coughlan (Bridgerton)
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Noah Wyle (The Pitt) — 17/5
2. Adam Scott (Severance) — 19/5
3. Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — 5/1
4. Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us) — 13/2
5. Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) — 13/2
6. Eddie Redmayne (The Day of the Jackal) — 16/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jon Hamm (Your Friends and Neighbors), Diego Luna (Andor), Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), Billy Bob Thornton (Landman), Mark Rylance (Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light), Rufus Sewell (The Diplomat)
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Carrie Coon (The White Lotus) — 39/10
2. Parker Posey (The White Lotus) — 5/1
3. Allison Janney (The Diplomat) — 11/2
4. Aimee Lou Wood (The White Lotus) — 19/2
5. Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus) — 14/1
6. Patricia Arquette (Severance) — 15/1
7. Isabela Merced (The Last of Us) — 16/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Taylor Dearden (The Pitt), Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt), Dichen Lachman (Severance), Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses), Leslie Bibb (The White Lotus), Julianne Nicholson (Paradise)
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Walton Goggins (The White Lotus) — 4/1
2. John Turturro (Severance) — 9/2
3. Tramell Tillman (Severance) — 6/1
4. Jason Isaacs (The White Lotus) — 15/2
5. Jack Lowden (Slow Horses) — 8/1
6. Sam Rockwell (The White Lotus) — 19/2
7. Patrick Schwarzenegger (The White Lotus) — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jeffrey Wright (The Last of Us), Patrick Ball (The Pitt), Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses), Zach Cherry (Severance), James Marsden (Paradise), Gerran Howell (The Pitt)
BEST COMEDY SERIES
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hacks — 4/1
2. The Studio — 13/2
3. The Bear — 13/2
4. Only Murders in the Building — 7/1
5. Abbott Elementary — 8/1
6. Shrinking — 19/2
7. Nobody Wants This — 21/2
8. What We Do in the Shadows — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Four Seasons, A Man on the Inside, The Residence, Poker Face, Agatha All Along, The Righteous Gemstones, Colin from Accounts
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jean Smart (Hacks) — 3/1
2. Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) — 9/2
3. Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) — 5/1
4. Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) — 6/1
5. Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face) — 21/2
6. Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Uzo Aduba (The Residence), Kathryn Hahn (Agatha All Along), Tina Fey (The Four Seasons), Bridget Everett (Somebody Somewhere), Wendi McLendon-Covey (St. Denis Medical), Rose McIver (Ghosts)
BEST COMEDY ACTOR
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) — 7/2
2. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) — 9/2
3. Seth Rogen (The Studio) — 5/1
4. Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) — 6/1
5. Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building) — 9/1
6. Jason Segel (Shrinking) — 10/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ted Danson (A Man on the Inside), Steve Carell (The Four Seasons), Brian Jordan Alvarez (English Teacher), Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows), Patrick Brammall (Colin from Accounts), Nathan Lane (Mid-Century Modern)
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) — 31/10
2. Liza Cólon-Zayas (The Bear) — 9/2
3. Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) — 6/1
4. Jessica Williams (Shrinking) — 7/1
5. Catherine O'Hara (The Studio) — 8/1
6. Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) — 19/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Patti LuPone (Agatha All Along), Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building), Meg Stalter (Hacks), Kathryn Hahn (The Studio), Linda Lavin (Mid-Century Modern), Chloe Fineman (Saturday Night Live)
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear) — 37/10
2. Harrison Ford (Shrinking) — 9/2
3. Paul W. Downs (Hacks) — 5/1
4. Michael Urie (Shrinking) — 8/1
5. Ike Barinholtz (The Studio) — 8/1
6. Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary) — 8/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live), Colman Domingo (The Four Seasons), Timothy Simons (Nobody Wants This), Brett Goldstein (Shrinking), Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Building), Marcello Hernandez (Saturday Night Live)
BEST LIMITED SERIES
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Adolescence — 46/25
2. The Penguin — 16/5
3. Dying for Sex — 13/2
4. Disclaimer — 17/2
5. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Say Nothing, Black Mirror, Presumed Innocent, La Maquina, Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist, Sirens
BEST TV MOVIE
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Rebel Ridge — 21/10
2. Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy — 18/5
3. Out of My Mind — 11/2
4. Mountainhead — 6/1
5. Am I OK? — 11/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Gorge, Swiped, It's What's Inside, The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat, G20, Star Trek: Section 31
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED ACTRESS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Cristin Milioti (The Penguin) — 2/1
2. Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) — 31/10
3. Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer) — 9/2
4. Renée Zellweger (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy) — 9/1
5. Kaitlyn Dever (Apple Cider Vinegar) — 15/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ellen Pompeo (Good American Family), Lola Petticrew (Say Nothing), Meghann Fahy (Sirens), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Gorge), Rashida Jones (Black Mirror), Uzo Aduba (The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat)
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED ACTOR
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Colin Farrell (The Penguin) — 7/4
2. Stephen Graham (Adolescence) — 69/20
3. Kevin Kline (Disclaimer) — 6/1
4. Cooper Koch (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 13/2
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Dope Thief) — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jake Gyllenhaal (Presumed Innocent), Robert De Niro (Zero Day), Nicholas Alexander Chavez (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story), Aaron Pierre (Rebel Ridge), Paul Giamatti (Black Mirror), Gael Garcia Bernal (La Maquina)
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Erin Doherty (Adolescence) — 9/2
2. Deirdre O'Connell (The Penguin) — 5/1
3. Jenny Slate (Dying for Sex) — 11/2
4. Lesley Manville (Disclaimer) — 15/2
5. Sissy Spacek (Dying for Sex) — 9/1
6. Christine Tremarco (Adolescence) — 12/1
7. Chloe Sevigny (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Leila George (Disclaimer), Angela Bassett (Zero Day), Julianne Moore (Sirens), Ruth Negga (Presumed Innocent), Taraji P. Henson (Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist), Milly Alcock (Sirens)
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTOR
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Owen Cooper (Adolescence) — 39/10
2. Javier Bardem (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 9/2
3. Rhenzy Feliz (The Penguin) — 15/2
4. Rob Delaney (Dying for Sex) — 19/2
5. Ashley Walters (Adolescence) — 19/2
6. Peter Sarsgaard (Presumed Innocent) — 10/1
7. Jesse Plemons (Zero Day) — 30/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Brian Cox (The Parenting), Kodi Smit-McPhee (Disclaimer), Hugh Grant (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy), Jay Duplass (Dying for Sex), Clancy Brown (The Penguin), Diego Luna (La Maquina)
SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions