Mansion sales are booming as the rich seek shelter from trade war fallout — ‘real estate is safer’
- Sales of homes prices at $10 million and above have shot up recently, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of real estate data. That coincides with the start of President Donald Trump's trade war, which has caused whiplash on financial markets as stocks crashed then rebounded sharply after the highest tariff rates came down.
The U.S. housing market remains largely frozen, but mansions have been hot lately as wealthy Americans turn to high-end properties amid market volatility and economic uncertainty.
According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of real estate data, sales of homes priced at $10 million and above have soared in top markets in recent months.
In Los Angeles County, for example, the number of such homes sold between Feb. 1 and May 1 totaled 160, up 29% from the same period a year earlier. That includes Beverly Hills, where sales leapt 33% to 16.
Manhattan has seen a 21% jump to 150, and Miami-Dade County is up 48% to 49 homes. Elsewhere, sales in Palm Beach, Fla., have surged 50% to 18 homes, and sales in Aspen, Colo., are up 44% to 23.
By contrast, the overall housing market has been subdued as high mortgage rates and home prices keep most Americans on the sidelines.
This year's spring selling season, when there is usually a burst of activity, has largely been a dud, with house hunters going shopping only to then back out.
Sales of existing homes in March, the most recent month available, sank 5.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, the lowest pace since September.
Meanwhile, Trump's on-again, off-again trade war—which began in February—has roiled financial markets as well as the economic outlook.
Stocks crashed as Trump unveiled an increasingly aggressive set of tariffs, but soared back to near-record levels after he rolled back or paused many of them. At the same time, Wall Street went from seeing continued U.S. economic growth to predicting a recession, then returning to growth views.
Questions over where the trade war is headed next are likely to continue as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that "strategic uncertainty" is a negotiating tactic.
'Real estate is safer, less volatile'
One New York entrepreneur who recently bought four Manhattan condos told the Wall Street Journal that the risk of more stock market pain is too high for the reward, especially amid inflation, saying "real estate is safer, less volatile."
Some real estate agents also cited the perceived safety of real estate, with one saying clients had even sold their stocks at a loss to buy property.
That tracks with earlier predictions of real estate looking safer. In March, National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun noted that real estate wealth was at all-time highs while stocks wobbled.
“Maybe people will begin to focus to say, ‘Where is stability?’” he told CNBC. “Some people are turning towards gold, but maybe other people will turn to the solid foundation of real estate, where the mortgage default rate is still near historically low levels.”
Volatility in the stock market and doubts about the dollar's global status have also pushed more investors to look for safety in gold, which has seen its price jump more than 20% so far this year and double over the last three years.
In fact, a recent Gallup poll found that 23% of Americans view gold as the best long-term investment, up 5 percentage points from a year ago. Meanwhile, 37% said real estate was the best, unchanged, and 16% said stocks, down 6 percentage points.
But stocks are still attractive to many investors, including retail traders who relentlessly "buy the dip." And investing legend Warren Buffett recently explained why he prefers stocks over real estate.
“Well, in respect to real estate, it’s so much harder than stocks in terms of negotiation of deals, time spent, and the involvement of multiple parties in the ownership,” he said at Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting earlier this month. “Usually when real estate gets in trouble, you find out you’re dealing with more than just the equity holder.”
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com