'Unusual' Pattern Noticed Ahead of Hurricane Season

A rare calm has settled over the Northern Hemisphere just weeks before the official start of hurricane season, and forecasters are watching closely. As of May 16, not a single tropical cyclone has formed anywhere north of the equator. Something that’s only happened five other times since 1950.

According to meteorologist Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, on average 3.5 storms would have already formed by this point in the year. The drought includes all tropical systems—hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones—in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans.

While the Atlantic and eastern Pacific are often quiet in early May, the lack of activity in the western Pacific is what makes this year stand out. That region typically kickstarts the tropical storm season, but unusual wind patterns near the Philippines have created anti-cyclonic flow, a condition that suppresses storm development.

Related: Staffing Shortages Threaten Weather Service Readiness for Hurricanes

The last time the season started this slowly was 2024. That year eventually produced 58 named storms, which is slightly below the long-term average of 62. Other years with this rare pattern (1973, 1983, 1984, and 1998) also ended with below-normal totals.

So, is this a good sign? Not necessarily.

There have been 0 Northern Hemisphere named storms (e.g., >=39 mph) so far in 2025. 5 other years since 1950 have had 0 Northern Hemisphere named storms through 15 May: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024. #hurricane #typhoon pic.twitter.com/IvBa1MXAhq

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) May 15, 2025

In 1973, the first storm didn’t form until June 2—still the record for the latest first storm in the Northern Hemisphere. And quiet beginnings don’t always mean mild endings. “It’s too early to tell,” Klotzbach told USA Today.

Meanwhile, the Southern Hemisphere has seen a busier-than-average season, with 31 named storms compared to the typical 25. That contrast underscores how variable global storm patterns can be.

Forecasters say that while the Atlantic and Gulf regions remain quiet for now, the calm may not last. Some recent hurricane outlooks suggest the quiet won’t last — and that conditions could turn dangerous soon.