Reporter's Notebook: Trump faces uphill battle to secure votes for 'big, beautiful bill' before recess

This morning marks the biggest domestic challenge of President Donald Trump's second term in office. 

The question is whether he can close the deal with skeptical House Republicans and convince them to support the so-called "big, beautiful bill."  

It’s doubtful the bill has the votes to pass right now. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., intends to pass the bill before releasing members for the Memorial Day recess. 

HOUSE GOP CHANNELS ‘NIGHTHAWKS’ AS THEY TRY TO PASS TRUMP'S ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’

Outstanding issues remain on state and local tax deductions (SALT), Medicaid work requirements, asking states to pick up additional health care costs and overall spending. 

It’s about the math. House Republicans can only lose three members and still approve the bill. 

Johnson wants to vote as early as Thursday – and maybe even tomorrow. 

TRUMP HEADS TO CAPITOL HILL TO PUSH ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’ 

The House Rules Committee will convene at 1 a.m. ET on Wednesday to begin prepping the package for the floor. There are several reasons for this, but let’s begin with the parliamentary one.

The Budget Committee wrapped up just before midnight Sunday. The rules allow Democrats two full days to file their paperwork and viewpoints after that meeting. So, they had all day Monday and all day Tuesday. The Rules Committee needs an "hour" to announce its formal meeting. So, the "official" announcement of the Rules Committee meeting on Wednesday will go out just after 12:01:01 a.m. ET Wednesday. That triggers at 1 a.m. ET meeting Wednesday. 

Here are the other, more practical reasons.

Republicans need all the time they can get. There is talk of trying to vote on the floor late in the day on Wednesday. We’ll see about that. But the early Rules Committee meeting time makes that a possibility. 

Second of all, it’s possible the Rules Committee meeting could consume the entire calendar day of Wednesday. Streams of lawmakers from both sides will file into the Rules Committee to propose various amendments. This is a protracted process.

But by the same token, the meeting at 1 a.m. ET could diminish attendance. After all, who wants to show up at 1 a.m. ET for a meeting and maybe discuss your amendment at 6:30 a.m. ET? You get the idea.

We expect Trump to meet with Republicans for about an hour and a half this morning. We’ll see if that moves the meter.