iPhone could triple in price to $3,500 if they’re made in the US, analyst warns

(CNN) — US President Donald Trump boasted “jobs and factories will come roaring back” when he unleashed unprecedented tariffs around the world during his “Liberation Day” address last month.

But there’s one product the president is particularly eager to produce in the US: iPhones.

“I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,” Trump posted Friday morning on Truth Social. “If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S.”

But Dan Ives, global head of technology research at financial services firm Wedbush Securities, told CNN’s Erin Burnett in April that idea is a “fictional tale.”

US-made iPhones will likely cost more than three times their current price of around $1,000, Ives said, because of the costs associated with replicating the highly complex production ecosystem that currently exists in Asia.

“You build that (supply chain) in the US with a fab in West Virginia and New Jersey. They’ll be $3,500 iPhones,” he said, referring to fabrication plants, or high-tech manufacturing facilities where computer chips that power electronic devices are normally made.

And even then, it would cost Apple about $30 billion and three years to move just 10% of their supply chain to the US to begin with, Ives told Burnett. CNN has reached out to Apple for comment regarding Trump’s Friday remarks.

The making and assembly of smartphone parts shifted to Asia decades ago, as American companies largely focused on software development and product design, which generate much higher profit margins. That move has helped make Apple one of the world’s most valuable companies and cement itself as a dominant smartphone maker.

Since Trump’s inauguration in late January, Apple’s shares have lost more than 14% of their value due to concerns about the impact of tariffs on its sprawling supply chain, which is highly dependent on China and Taiwan. About 90% of Apple’s iPhone production takes place in China, according to Ives.

“That’s why I think you see what’s happened to the stock, because no company is more caught up in this tariff front and center in this category five storm than Cupertino and Apple,” he said in April. “It’s an economic Armageddon, but especially for the tech industry.”

The chips that power iPhones are mainly manufactured in Taiwan, while its screen panels are supplied by South Korean companies. Some other components are made in China, and final assembly mostly takes place in the country.

The administration’s exemption of smartphones and other electronics containing semiconductors from the elevated “reciprocal” tariffs on China has spared iPhones from the harshest levies, but Apple still faces a 20% tariff on Chinese goods for the country’s role in the fentanyl trade. Apple CEO Tim Cook said on the company’s most recent earnings call that “the majority” of iPhones coming into the United States will now be shipped from India, adding that tariffs could add $900 million to Apple’s costs this quarter.

In February, Apple announced it would invest $500 billion in the United States over the next four years as part of its effort expand production outside China and to avoid Trump’s tariffs on the country.

Apple has been seeking to diversify its production bases from China to India and Brazil. But Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, estimates it would be difficult for Apple not to raise iPhone prices if it faces tariffs of 30% or higher.

“Anything below 30, they will probably carry the vast majority of that increase,” he said. “But I think at some point they’re going to have to start to share it.”

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