Twins series preview: Expect a low-scoring series
Twins pitching has been outstanding lately.
After a late-season collapse, the Twins were strangely quiet this offseason. But despite some early injuries, they have shown they will be a contender in the Central Division with strong pitching and an opportunistic offense. The Twins have gotten hot recently, enjoying a 13-game winning streak in May. Their 16-7 home record is fourth-best in baseball.
Kansas City Royals (28-23) vs. Minnesota Twins (27-22) at Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Royals: 3.37 runs scored/game (26th in MLB), 3.29 runs allowed/game (2nd)
Twins: 4.10 runs scored/game (21st), 3.45 runs allowed/game (4th)
The Twins have been banged up with Byron Buxton out with injury, but Carlos Correa is expected to return from a stint on the concussion list today, and Matt Wallner could return this weekend as well. Overall they have struggled offensively this season. They have scored three or fewer runs in 22 of their 49 games. Only eight teams have hit fewer home runs and only five teams have a lower walk rate.
Kody Clemens was purchased from the Phillies in late April and has gone on a tear since joining the Twins, going 14-for-44 (.318) with three home runs. Trevor Larnach is hitting .284/.333/.507 with three home runs over his last 17 games. Ty France is a career .410/.496/.675 hitter against the Royals with seven home runs in 31 games, but he is mired in a 4-for-29 (.138) slump in his last seven games.
Harrison Bader is a .327/.438/.423 at home this year. Ryan Jeffers has a 32 percent walk rate against lefties, but a 2 percent walk rate against righties. Carlos Correa has a 51 percent ground ball rate, 11th-highest in baseball.
The Twins have just 27 steals at a 73 percent success rate, among the lowest numbers in baseball. Correa has been among the leaders on Outs Above Average, and Harrison Bader has fared well in the outfield. Ryan Jeffers has throrwn out 33 percent of base-stealing attempts, but fares poorly in framing metrics unlike backup Christian Vázquez.
The Twins threw three consecutive shutouts during their recent win streak, at one time tossing 34 consecutive scoreless innings. Pablo López didn’t allow a run when he faced the Royals back in early April, but he failed to get out of the fifth inning. He has a 5-1 career mark against them in seven starts with a 2.23 ERA. Salvador Perez is just 2-for-16 (.125) with six strikeouts against him, while Vinnie Pasquantino is hitless in 13 tries. Opponents are hitting just .143 against his curve this year with a 52 percent whiff rate.
Zebby Matthews gave up four runs in three innings in his season debut last week against the Brewers. He had a 6.69 ERA in nine starts last year, but struck out 43 in 37 2⁄3 innings. He has the fourth-highest home run rate of any pitcher with at least 40 innings pitched over the last two years. Matthews throws a 96.5 mph fastball with a cutter and slider.
Bailey Ober has fared much worse in his career against the Royals, going 0-4 with a 5.90 ERA in 11 starts. Bobby Witt Jr. is 11-for-22 (.500) with a double, two triples, and a home run against him. Ober gave up eight runs in his first start of the year, but has not given up more than three runs in a start since then. He gave up one run in six innings in a loss to the Royals in April. He has a 5.4 percent walk rate, 17th-lowest among qualified starters. Opponents have a .319 BABIP against Ober, seventh-highest in baseball, and he has a groundball rate of just 31 percent, fourth-lowest.
The Twins bullpen has been solid with a 3.09 ERA, fourth-lowest in baseball. They have the lowest FIP at 3.09 and the lowest walk rate. Jhoan Duran has converted eight of nine saves and has a 72 percent groundball rate, second-highest among relievers. Griffin Jax has the seventh-highest strikeout rate among relievers. Louis Varland has the fifth-highest pop-up rate.
The Royals dropped 7 of 13 to the Twins last year, but already have a leg up on them this year, taking three of four from them back in Kansas City in April. They have a chance to enjoy a winning road trip before heading back home and perhaps making some headway in the competitive Central Division.