Suriname’s oil future looms large as the nation faces a political transition and rising foreign interest in its oil reserves.

Suriname is a small country located on the northeastern shoulder of South America. A former Dutch colony with a population of less than one million people, it has long been on the margins of geopolitical importance. Suriname’s place in the world changed radically in 2020 when massive reserves of offshore oil were discovered, raising speculation that it shared the same abundant oil-producing geography as its neighbor, Guyana. Although there are deep-rooted concerns over climate change, the global energy transition from oil and gas to renewables is taking longer than initially expected, and the use of oil and gas is expected to continue for some time. Moreover, as the artificial intelligence (AI) technological revolution ramps up, many countries will need even more energy, beyond what can be provided by the current capacity of renewables. In this changing global ecosystem, Suriname has something that the world wants—oil. The small South American country is squarely on the global energy map, and what goes on there, including a national election, has relevance in Beijing, Washington, and European capitals. 

A Political Shakeup and Economic Stakes

On May 25, Suriname went to the polls. The center-left opposition National Democratic Party (NDP), headed by Jennifer Geerlings-Simons, won 18 seats in the country’s 51-seat National Assembly, nudging out incumbent President Chan Santokhi’s Progressive Reform Party (VHP), which won 17 seats. The NDP quickly reached out to all parties except the VHP, and the soon-to-be coalition signed a letter of intention to form a government. The other parties include the National Party of Suriname and the General Liberation and Development Party (ABOP), which both won six seats; Brotherhood and Unity in Politics (BEP), which won two seats; and Alternative 2020 and Pertjajah Luhur, which each won one seat. Considering that the coalition has 34 seats, it is likely that Geerlings-Simons will be the country’s first female president.  

Economic issues dominated the campaign. Santokhi’s government came into office in 2020, inheriting an economy in freefall, a gift from the departing NDP President Dési Bouterse. The 2010-2020 Bouterse era was defined by its boom-bust cycle related to gold, the country’s major export, and a series of damaging scandals, including one that rocked the country’s central bank. To deal with a dismal economy, the Santokhi government embarked on a painful economic overhaul, a restructuring of the country’s defaulted international debt, and an effort to prepare for harnessing Suriname’s oil potential. And the government did put the country on firmer economic ground. According to the International Monetary Fund, in January 2025, “The authorities’ commitment to a range of policy reforms continues to strengthen macroeconomic stability. The economy is growing, inflation is receding, donor support is increasing, the public debt is declining, and international bond spreads are at historical lows.” Real GDP growth is expected to be 3.2 percent in 2025, compared to economic contraction and anemic expansion in the late 2010s. Additionally, inflation is down from 59.1 percent in 2021 to around 13 percent in 2024, with a further drop expected this year.

Governance Challenges

Unfortunately, the Santokhi administration had its own share of scandals (several surrounding Vice President Brunswijk), patronage issues, and the economic pain, especially the cutting of subsidies, was deeply felt and resented by the population. It could also be argued that Santokhi suffered an inability to communicate how his economic measures and policies were to benefit society. 

While the NDP has moved quickly to form a new government, the party has its own political baggage and is likely to have a different approach to the management of the pending oil wealth. The political baggage relates to its former leader and country’s president (2010-2020), Desi Bouterse, who was convicted over the December 1982 murder of opponents to his military-led regime, a convicted drug dealer in the Netherlands, and having presided over considerable corruption as well as facilitating the use of Suriname as a transit point in international drug trafficking and illicit gold trafficking from Colombia and Venezuela. At the same time, Bouterse maintained relatively close ties to China, to which he turned for significant borrowing, leaving the Asian country the country’s largest sovereign creditor. 

Suriname’s Oil Horizon

Suriname’s oil question now dominates where the country heads next. TotalEnergies and Apache (APA) are investing $10.5 billion to get Suriname’s oil sector pumping oil by 2028. Considering how ExxonMobil, Hess, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) have invested massively in Guyana since 2015 and how Suriname’s neighbor has become a global economic growth trailblazer, the hope is that the process will be repeated in Suriname. While Santokhi followed more market-oriented policies and was willing to work with Western and Chinese oil companies, change might be on the way. An NDP government could adopt a more populist and redistributive model. As Bloomberg’s Patricia Laya and Denis Chabrol noted, “The NDP’s campaign called for future oil revenues to fund stronger social programs and local content rules. Though she [Geerlings-Simon] has pledged to honor existing contracts, her victory could introduce a more cautious posture toward foreign investors and multinational oil companies.” There are also concerns that an NDP government could lean more towards China. 

Probably the most significant challenge for the new government is how to manage the process of becoming a petro-state. Suriname’s governance record is a challenge. In Transparency International’s 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index, Suriname ranked 88 out of 180 countries. While far removed from countries at the bottom of the list, such as Haiti, Somalia, and Venezuela, Suriname ranks below most of the Caribbean, including most of its fellow Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM) members. To put it politely, there is room for improvement. Considering that oil, and possibly natural gas, which is also thought to exist in abundance, is likely to generate substantial cash flows, are Suriname’s institutions ready for the challenge? The state-owned oil company Staatsolie has a relatively good reputation, but there are questions over other parts of the state. 

Rising Foreign Interest 

While Suriname sorts out the election aftermath, the United States, China, and Europe are watching closely. Each actor has a stake in the development of Suriname’s energy sector. Both the United States and China are facing steeply climbing energy needs as they embrace the AI revolution, while Europe needs to develop and maintain new energy supply chains, considering the likelihood that Russia’s oil and gas will remain off-limits for the foreseeable future. Europe has already turned to Guyana in this regard, becoming one of the biggest buyers of oil. 

Suriname’s geopolitical game is likely to intensify as its new government faces a Trump administration that is clearly signaling that the Western hemisphere is its sphere of influence, while China is determined to play a significant role in the South American country. France’s TotalEnergies and the United States’ APA are the largest players in the energy sector, and Chevron and Shell are also engaged. But in 2024, PetroChina was awarded two offshore blocks to develop. 

China’s Growing Presence

While oil and natural gas are key drivers in US-China competition in Suriname, other resources have drawn in Chinese investment. In 2022, Zijin Mining bought out Canada’s Iamgold Holdings Surinamese assets, and in November 2024, Chinalco, one of China’s largest mining companies, purchased local bauxite assets. It is also worth noting that in 2018, Suriname joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), was recognized by Beijing in 2019 as a “strategic cooperative partner,” and China’s Huawei is well-established as part of the country’s telecommunications infrastructure. Additionally, while a restructuring deal for $544 million of Suriname’s debt to China was announced in November 2024, it was later revealed that this was not the case, and the final paperwork awaits the new government. The bottom line is that China has invested a lot in Suriname, including seeing the local Chinese community grow, and is not likely to walk away from the energy-abundant South American country any time soon.

Washington’s Renewed Engagement

Suriname’s elevated geopolitical profile in Washington is evident in that Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the country in March 2025.  He emphasized that the United States “…wanted to take a particular interest in visiting and reaffirming our ties to both leaders and countries who have been strong partners, and you have been a very strong partner of the United States.” The United States is one of Suriname’s major trade partners, and as Suriname’s oil boom takes shape, there will be new opportunities for US companies, which the Trump administration regards as especially important to counter Chinese influence. Moreover, the Trump administration’s desire for lower energy costs would be helped by an abundant flow of Surinamese crude on international markets. 

Suriname’s Strategic Balancing Act

Suriname’s new government will have to balance American, Chinese, and European geopolitical interests and energy concerns while finding equitable deals for Suriname’s citizens. Governance looms large, as does a desire to redistribute Suriname’s oil wealth, which has yet to materialize. These are big challenges for Suriname’s next president and the emerging oil state, which is setting sail in increasingly choppy geopolitical waters. 

About the Author: Scott B. MacDonald

Dr. Scott B. MacDonald is Chief Economist at Smith’s Research & Gradings and a Fellow at the Caribbean Policy Consortium. He is also the author of The New Cold War, China, and the Caribbean (Palgrave Macmillan, 2022). 

Image: Comdas/Shutterstock

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