Is this one group of voters the silver bullet for Republicans in the midterm elections?
Encouraging unmotivated Trump voters to cast their ballots in the 2026 midterm elections may be crucial for the Republican Party to maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
Recent research from J.L. Partners — first reported by Politico on Thursday — found that a large number of Americans who previously voted for President Donald Trump now feel unenthusiastic about voting Republican in 2026. Some analysts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that whether the GOP is able to motivate large voter turnout among low-propensity voters in the upcoming midterms could determine the balance of power in Congress in 2026.
“Republicans will have a hard time surviving the 2026 midterms without figuring out how to engage the low-propensity Trump voter,” Sam Kay, a pollster at OnMessage Inc., a Republican consulting firm, told the DCNF. “We’ve seen that these voters are largely apathetic toward politicians who aren’t Donald Trump. They believe he’s the only one willing to take on the Washington establishment, so they’re only interested in showing up for him.”
“If we want low-propensity Trump voters to turn out in 2026, we need to make this election about protecting President Trump’s agenda,” Kay added. “Emphasize that the Democrats will do anything to stop him, and drive home the message that he can’t finish the job he started unless Republicans keep both the House and Senate.”
James Johnson, pollster and co-founder of J.L. Partners, told Politico on Thursday that he believes some Americans may view voting Republican in the 2026 midterms as a way to increase the GOP’s chances of winning in the 2028 presidential election.
“Most (64%) would still vote GOP if the election were held tomorrow, but lack a clear reason to do so,” Johnson told Politico. “We believe they are the critical difference that will settle the House and Senate.”
“Compared to overall Trump voters, these voters skew younger (18–29) and [are] more likely to be black,” Johnson told the outlet. “What motivates these voters is not arguments about Trump, judicial appointments or even the 2027-9 agenda. It is instead the argument that by voting for a Republican-controlled Congress in 2026, they will help the Republicans win the presidency in 2028 … They are thinking through a presidential election prism.”
The Democratic Party notably suffered significant losses in the 2024 election cycle, with Trump sweeping all seven swing states and the vast majority of counties in the U.S. shifting to the right.
“Pairing the midterm history with the demographic changes in the electorate presents a challenge for Republicans in the context of elections this year and next year, so of course Republicans will want to motivate their electorate as best that they can next year. That’s easier said than done,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections, told the DCNF.
Kondik said he believes the 2026 midterm elections should be viewed separately from the 2028 presidential election, citing the fact that presidential elections historically have higher voter turnout than midterms.
“Midterms should be considered separately from presidential elections,” Kondik told the DCNF. “The president is not on the midterm ballot and the presidential contest has larger turnout, and midterms don’t necessarily predict presidential outcomes. Democrats, for instance, got blown out in the 2010 midterm, but that didn’t prevent Obama from winning reelection in 2012. Republicans were on the wrong side of both the 2018 and 2020 elections, but they were clearly more competitive in 2020 than they were in 2018. Even if Republicans do very poorly in 2026, it doesn’t necessarily mean anything for 2028, and there are plenty of voters who won’t show up in 2026 but will in 2028.”
“Midterm turnout is always lower than presidential turnout, and it’s common for the midterm electorate to be more open to the non-presidential party than the previous cycle’s presidential electorate was,” Kondik said. “In the Trump era, there also has been a demographic tradeoff occurring, in which Democrats have picked up a smaller number of white college-educated voters from the Republicans while Republicans have picked up a larger number of white and nonwhite working class voters from the Democrats.”
“That has made the Republican coalition larger than it was before Trump, but the voters that Republicans have lost — specifically white college-educated voters — are generally more reliable voters in off-years, which may give Democrats a bit of an edge in lower-turnout elections, and every election is lower turnout than a presidential election,” Kondik added.
Republicans currently have an eight-seat majority in the House, including vacancies caused by the recent deaths of threeHouse Democrats.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in April released a list of 35 “competitive” Republican-held seats it said will determine the House majority, including several congressional districts that Trump won by double digits in the 2024 presidential election. Similarly, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in March published a list of 26 Democratic-held seats they view as potential key pickup opportunities for House Republicans to expand their narrow majority.
The Democratic Party is also aiming to regain control of the Senate and House in 2026. Though, some Democratic lawmakers have recently expressed doubt that their party will be able to retake the Senate in the next midterm election cycle.
A spate of recent surveys have shown that Americans view Republicans more favorably than Democrats. An Economist/YouGov poll conducted in May found that 41% of Americans viewed Republicans favorably, while just 36% of respondents said they held a favorable view of Democrats.
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