If Cubs are taking back the North — er, Central — this Brewers series would be a fine time to make that clear
So, about the Brewers and the Cubs …
Make that the Cubs and the Brewers.
The order has been reversed. The tables have turned. South sits above North again in this sweet little rivalry, as it should most of the time, if not always.
This must be what Cubs manager Craig Counsell was getting at last September when he assessed the “big, daunting gap” between his old, small-market team and his new, major-market one — buried 10 games back in the division standings — and said, “I think it’s important that you reflect on the season, [and] if I sit here and say we need to be better, that reflection needs to create some changes.”
A year ago on June 17, the first-place Brewers were in fine shape at 42-30, while the last-place Cubs — who reeled to the tune of 21-34 in May and June — were already 8½ games back at 34-39. Those Brewers possessed the best bullpen in the National League, stole more bases than all but one team in baseball and outperformed the Cubs in essentially every offensive category, even home runs, despite the modest power in first-year skipper Pat Murphy’s lineup.
The 2024 Brewers far surpassed expectations, winning 93 games. The Cubs flopped, winning only 83 despite strong starting pitching and the presence of Counsell, on whom president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer had staked his own reputation.
The rivalry has been one of the majors’ streakier ones. The Brewers owned it from 2011 through 2013, going 36-16 against the Cubs. The Cubs won the season series five straight years from 2014 through 2018, piling up a head-to-head record of 57-39. Since that run, though, the Cubs have had the better of it only once (in 2022, going 10-9) in six seasons. The Brewers’ surprisingly easy 2024 flex under Murphy — who’d been Counsell’s longtime bench coach — was worthy of serious bragging rights.
In recent years, the Brewers haven’t just put up more “W's” than the Cubs. They’ve also had a seeming edge when they’ve needed it. Late last season, Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon said the Brewers were just plain better in the “big moments.”
“It’s on us to flip the script,” Taillon said then.
The Brewers who showed up Tuesday at Wrigley Field for the first time this season have been strong in the big moments, too. Since a ragged 21-25 start, they’ve gone 18-9 to remain relatively in range of the first-place Cubs, who lead them by 5½ games. While the Cubs were winning three of four against the Pirates to begin this homestand, the Brewers were taking three of four from the Cardinals, who suddenly are on the verge of being smoked out of contention before the All-Star break.
The Cardinals and Reds rolled out of bed Tuesday with identical 37-35 records. Isn’t it against the law, or at least a violation of baseball norms, to give up on an above-.500 team in June? Or maybe it’ll end up being only the Brewers — often their tormentors — these Cubs have to worry about.
Unless, that is, the Brewers have no shot to hang with the Cubs themselves. The Cubs opened this series on a pace to win 99 games, which would be the franchise’s second-highest mark since the 1935 team went 100-54 en route to the World Series. Historians claim there was a certain 103-win Cubs team in 2016, and we’ll take them at their word.
Have we mentioned tables turning? The Cubs trail only the Dodgers among all big-league teams in runs scored; the Brewers rank 12th. The Cubs are fourth in OPS; the Brewers are 25th. The power gap (97 homers for the Cubs, 65 for the Brewers) is huge, as is the bullpen gap (3.16 ERA for the Cubs, 4.28 for the Brewers). The Cubs have even surpassed the Brewers in stolen bases — 90 to 89 — and the back-and-forth between the top two NL teams in that department might be fun to monitor the rest of the way.
Starting pitching is the only area of significance in which the Brewers have an edge over the Cubs, who lost Justin Steele right out of the gates and have their fingers crossed Shota Imanaga will get back to business without further setbacks. It’s almost a flip of the script from last year, when the Brewers faced — and excelled in spite of — life without Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff.