Pixar’s ‘Elio’ Marks the Next Test of Original Animation at the Box Office

This weekend’s box office sees the release of two films that aren’t currently projected to take the No. 1 spot from Universal/DreamWorks’ “How to Train Your Dragon” remake, but are key titles for their respective studios: Disney/Pixar’s “Elio” and Sony/Columbia’s “28 Years Later.”

“Elio” marks Pixar’s return to theaters after releasing last year’s highest grossing movie, “Inside Out 2,” which earned just shy of $1.7 billion at the global box office and became the highest grossing animated film of all time before “Ne Zha 2” smashed that record earlier this year.

But “Elio” is an original film, and drumming up pre-release excitement for animated movies that don’t have a big IP attached has been extremely difficult for Hollywood over the past several years. The most optimistic projections for this film’s opening weekend stand at $35 million, with a $28-32 million start currently considered a more likely outcome.

That’s why the measuring stick for “Elio” will be Pixar’s last original release, “Elemental,” which staged an unexpected comeback that may end up being the standard for well-received original films going forward.

In 2023, “Elemental” had virtually no traction with the public prior to its release, leading to the worst opening weekend in Pixar history at just $29.6 million. Given its $150 million-plus budget, it seemed like it was doomed to join “Lightyear” and “Strange World” on the list of recent Disney bombs.

But “Elemental” took advantage of extremely strong, worldwide word-of-mouth and a lack of animated competition after its release to leg out well past anyone’s expectations, keeping its domestic weekend grosses above $10 million through the next three weekends while finding cultural resonance in other countries, particularly South Korea, from which director Peter Sohn’s parents emigrated to America.

By the end of its run, “Elemental” was a modest but meaningful box office success, earning an incredible 5.21x multiple with its $154.4 million domestic and $496 million global total. It still stands globally as the highest grossing original film since the pandemic, even if it pales in comparison to the likes of “Inside Out 2,” “Moana 2” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie.”

A film that had a similar trajectory was DreamWorks’ “The Wild Robot” last fall. While it is a YA novel adaptation rather than an original film, it found itself in the same position as “Elemental” in not having the advantage of being able to sell itself on characters or IP that mass audiences were familiar with.

While not as strong overseas due in part to its autumn release, “The Wild Robot” still legged out thanks to strong post-release word-of-mouth, turning its $35 million September opening into a 4x multiple with $143.9 million domestic and $333 million worldwide, leading to DreamWorks greenlighting a sequel.

All this shows that a lackluster opening weekend for “Elio” won’t spell doom for the film if audiences enjoy it enough. Early reviews for “Elio” have been largely positive with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score at time of writing compared to 73% for “Elemental,” which went on to get top marks on CinemaScore and PostTrak from audiences.

And like “Elemental,” the biggest competition for “Elio” will be what came before it, not after it. “How to Train Your Dragon” is expected to top “Elio” with a second weekend of $40 million, and with its strong word-of-mouth it will keep drawing families out well into Fourth of July weekend, where “Jurassic World: Rebirth” will be released.

But if “Elio” can find a foothold and keep its weekend drops below 40%, it will be able to enjoy a July which, while loaded with four-quadrant films like “Superman,” won’t have any animated movies on the slate until “The Bad Guys 2” at the start of August. That would give “Elio” a clear run at a potential $150 million domestic total.

Also opening this weekend is “28 Years Later,” a legacyquel to the 2002 horror classic “28 Days Later” and its 2007 sequel “28 Weeks Later.” The original film’s director-writer duo of Danny Boyle and Alex Garland returned for this $60 million-budgeted film set, as its title suggests, 28 years after the events of “28 Days Later” among the post-apocalyptic ruins of a Britain destroyed by a disease known as the Rage Virus.

Boyle and Garland have plans to turn “28 Years Later” into a trilogy, with the second installment, “The Bone Temple,” already completed with Nia DaCosta as director and set for release this January. The performance of both films will determine whether Sony greenlights the final film in the trilogy, which Boyle hopes to direct.

Currently, “28 Years Later” is projected, rather fittingly, for a $28 million opening weekend. That would be a solid start for the film and would eclipse the entire unadjusted domestic run of “28 Weeks Later,” which made $28.6 million in North America in summer 2007. While a sequel, the time skip will allow newcomers to get onboard “28 Years Later” without having seen its predecessors, which should help word-of-mouth. The film does not have a Rotten Tomatoes score at time of writing.

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