40% of Americans expect civil war in next decade – poll

The survey reflects rising fears amid protests, deportation riots, and political violence

Forty percent of Americans believe a civil war in the US is “somewhat” or “very” likely within the next decade, a new YouGov poll released on Tuesday suggests.

The poll, which surveyed 3,375 adults, underscores widespread anxiety over the nation’s deepening divisions. It also follows a wave of unrest in the country, including violent protests against federal deportations and nationwide demonstrations aimed at President Donald Trump.

Women were more likely than men to consider civil conflict plausible, with 45% indicating it was likely. Views also varied by political affiliation: 48% of Democrats, 39% of independents, and 32% of Republicans said a civil war was at least somewhat probable. While respondents were more or less split on the likelihood of a civil war, just over 20% were unsure or declined to answer.

The data also suggested racial disparities. Among white respondents, 10% said a civil war was “very likely,” compared to 18% of black respondents. Hispanics were the least likely to completely dismiss the idea, with only 11% saying a conflict was “not likely at all,” while 15% called it “very likely.”

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Earlier this month, riots erupted across California in response to federal immigration enforcement actions. Trump deployed the National Guard and Marines after a public clash with California Governor Gavin Newsom over his handling of the crisis.

Last week, Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband were fatally shot and State Senator John Hoffman and his wife injured in what officials called “politically motivated” attacks.

On Saturday, an estimated 5 million people participated in “No Kings” marches across all 50 states. Organizers described the protests as a stand against “authoritarianism, billionaire-first politics, and the militarization of our democracy.”

Meanwhile, some Republican allies have warned that Trump is losing support for deviating from his “America First” platform, particularly after backing Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump dismissed the criticism in an interview with The Atlantic, saying he alone defines what “America First” means.