Max Kepler and Brandon Marsh will likely influence the Phillies’ trade deadline plans
Over the next six weeks, the Phillies will take stock of what they have and what they don’t have as they create their shopping list for the July 31 trade deadline. Their needs may change over time. New ones could arise. Current ones might dissipate. Six weeks is a long time. What the Phillies need now and what they’ll need on July 31 may not be the same.
As the situation remains fluid, players currently rostered by the club will play a role in determining what the front office feels the team needs. Pitching — specifically relief pitching — will likely be a top priority. Outfield help could be, too. But if Max Kepler and Brandon Marsh keep up their current trends, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski may view getting an outfielder as less important.
After batting .253/.343/.411 in the season’s first month, Kepler’s production dropped off in May. He batted .188 with a .650 OPS last month. He walked less than in March/April. He started striking out more. But since the calendar’s flipped to June, Kepler’s started producing a bit more. He’s hitting .214/.298/.476 so far this month with three home runs. He’s also collected a hit in seven straight games. What’s helped Kepler of late is getting back to hitting more line drives. His manager has noticed a change.
“He’s starting to get the ball up in the air,” Rob Thomson recently said regarding Kepler. “It’s a good thing. He’s got a lot of power.”
According to FanGraphs, Kepler’s line-drive rate in March/April was 21.1%. In May, it dropped all the way down to 8.5%. So far this month, it’s 19.4%.
All three of Kepler’s home runs in June have come over his last seven games. One came last Saturday. It was a big hit. After working a 2-0 count against Blue Jays reliever Chad Green in the bottom of the eighth inning, Kepler sent a fastball into the right-field seats for a game-winning home run.
Signed to a one-year deal in the offseason to play every day, Kepler is a platoon player now. Weston Wilson tends to start in left field when the Phillies face a left-handed starter. But the club is in a stretch where they’re going to face plenty of right-handed pitching. Thomson thinks that it can help Kepler.
“Hopefully, he’s turning the corner here a little bit,” Thomson said. “Get some consistent at-bats, because we’re going to be facing a lot of righties here coming up. He looks good right now.”
While Kepler’s recent success is just that, Marsh has been going good for some time now. Since returning from the injured list on May 3, his .876 OPS is 18th in the National League among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. He’s got a .330 average since returning with an 11.5% walk rate. Thomson thinks Marsh has found himself after going 4-for-42 in March/April.
“I think he’s found his swing,” the Phillies skipper said. “He’s found his timing. He’s using the entire field. And that’s what he’s gotta do. His on-base (percentage), actually, is pretty good. Even over the course of the entire year. He’s really having good at-bats right now.”
Marsh has a .344 on-base percentage this year. Since May 3, it’s .404. That kind of production at the bottom of the batting order can be a big help.
“Having (Marsh) at the bottom of the lineup can turn it over to the guys at the top,” Thomson said.
Marsh did just that by tripling in the top of the seventh inning in Monday’s 5-2 Phillies win over the Marlins. Trea Turner singled Marsh home one batter later to extend the Phillies’ lead. Marsh helped turn the lineup over again in the top of the ninth. He walked, and later scored on a two-out single by Alec Bohm, giving the Phillies some insurance.
In the middle of an eight-game hitting streak, Marsh has been a big help to the Phillies’ offense of late. He has three multi-hit performances during his current streak. He snapped the club’s five-game losing streak on June 9 with a walk-off single against the Cubs.
Entering June, the Phillies had gotten a .708 OPS from their outfielders — the exact OPS they got from their outfielders last year. The club wanted their outfield to be better this year. Adding Kepler, along with hoping Marsh would take a step forward, was part of the club’s calculus in having a better offensive outfield in 2025. So far, that hasn’t been the case. But Kepler and Marsh are both showing signs of increased production of late. If the trend continues, it could impact the Phillies’ trade deadline plans, making adding an outfielder more of a luxury addition than a highly needed one.