NFL contract predictions on 4 EDGE rushers holding out for better deals

Let’s predict how the NFL holdouts of four EDGE rushers will end.

In the NFL, the market for every position resets every single year. It’s how things are. Everyone wants to get compensated for their work on the field, and their play usually backs it up. Sometimes, a certain position gets the contract spotlight.

How many times have we seen the wide receiver market get reset after someone has a career year? Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson did it last offseason, then Cincinnati Bengals Ja’Marr Chase topped those numbers (outdoing his former LSU Tigers teammate). Those are two examples on a broader scale.

This year, it’s the year of the edge rushers. First, Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby set the mark:

Despite requesting a trade earlier in the offseason, Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett received a massive extension, making him the highest-paid defensive player in the league, taking over the mark set by Crosby just days earlier:

In the lull between mandatory minicamp and training camp, there are three star edge rushers who have yet to be compensated for their play, and one rookie edge rusher who hasn’t even signed his deal due to certain language being put in their contract.

Will those three veteran edge rushers get paid and how will “the Dollar General of the NFL” resolve contract talks with their first-round pick?

Bengals EDGE Trey Hendrickson

It feels like the Cincinnati Bengals make things way too difficult for themselves when it doesn’t have to be that way. This offseason is no different, hence the “Dollar General” monicker.

Hendrickson was one of the lone bright spots on a defense that ranked 30th in defensive success rate and 27th in Defensive EPA/per play, but for whatever the case may be, the team has yet to give him a new deal. The veteran defender didn’t report to mandatory minicamp for the team last week after not attending OTA’s previously. Recently, the team and Hendrickson have restarted talks again but the question is if those talks will progress into the pass rusher signing on the dotted line.

The issue isn’t the fact that Cincinnati is in this stalemate with Hendrickson now; it’s the fact that the Bengals weren’t proactive the last two offseasons. Considering that they decided to pay both wide receivers, Chase and Tee Higgins, instead of prioritizing Hendrickson after getting the Chase deal completed, they’ve made their bed in this situation.

Hendrickson is not the only edge rusher who is disgruntled.

Prediction: The stalemate lingers into training camp, Hendrickson misses the first few days before the team eventually signs him to a deal. Around $38 million per year, which is slightly more than what Crosby got and only a little less than what Garrett received.

Bengals EDGE Shemar Stewart

The Stewart situation is one that no rookie should have to go through, let alone a first-round pick. The problem isn’t how much money he wants; it’s the language in the contract.

Again, Cincinnati is making things more difficult than they have to by trying to implement a “default clause” in Stewart’s contract. Basically, if he were to get hurt off the field, get suspended, or arrested, any money that’s guaranteed would be voided.

The issue is, the Bengals have never done this before, and they didn’t do it with Amarius Mims, who the team drafted last year in the first round, picked one spot lower than Stewart. There are other teams that have this clause implemented in their contracts with their rookies.

It’s not about the money when it comes to this situation; it’s more about the principle. You haven’t put this language in your contracts for the last two rookies you signed, so why are you choosing to do it now? It’s a bad look and Cincinnati needs to figure this out.

Prediction: Stewart asks for a trade, but the Bengals rebuff his request. The stalemate between the Bengals and Stewart lingers, causing him to miss half of training camp, but he eventually signs his contract and reports to camp with the sides meeting in the middle on the voided language.

Steelers EDGE/OLB T.J. Watt

Staying in the AFC North, the Pittsburgh Steelers are having issues paying one of their core defensive players, which was not on my bingo card, but here we are. The question is, how much should Watt get paid? Is Pittsburgh’s stud a top 10 edge rusher in the league? Yes. Is he worth paying top-five money? That is debatable.

Watt has been on a bit of a decline recently, and having him reset the market during his age-31 season would raise some eyebrows. Especially considering some believe Watt might not even be the best edge rusher on his team this season, with Alex Highsmith growing into that role. I don’t envision Watt sitting out of training camp and a deal will likely get done. It might not be the deal he wants and it might depend on the timing of the other two veterans on this list signing their new deals.

Prediction: Watt gets a deal signed before the start of training camp, but the deal is near $30 million annually, which isn’t close to what Garrett or Crosby received

Cowboys EDGE Micah Parsons

Of the three veterans on this list, if I had to guess who is more likely to reset the edge rusher market again, it would be Parsons.

Considering how talented Parsons is and how dominant a force he is for the Dallas Cowboys, it’s confusing as to why a deal isn’t done already. If you look at what Garrett got, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Parsons got close or surpassed it.

As the Penn State pass rusher noted, the Cowboys have cost themselves money by waiting, but that is nothing new for the organization.

Parsons is a top-two edge rusher in this league and is the best player on the Dallas defense. It’s not a question of whether Parsons will get paid; it’s only a matter of when he will get paid and will he top Garrett’s deal.

Prediction: Parsons reports to camp and eventually resets the market, making him the highest-paid edge rusher in the league. Given the delay, Jerry Jones is forced to pony up a bit extra. Let's say a $41.5 million average annual salary, with a chance it is closer to $45 million. The deal is likely done before the start of the regular season, roughly after the last preseason game.