The UK is now 20 times more likely to see a 40°C summer
Heatwave-level hot weather will be here for a while – and we might even see temperatures pass 40°C this summer, a UK forecaster has warned.
A UK heatwave is expected to be officially declared by this weekend, with temperatures reaching over 30°C tomorrow and sticking around until next week, before another burst of hot weather likely at the end of the month.
While many will enjoy the chance of sunning themselves, hotter weather, for example heatwaves, are part of a concerning trend.
The UK is now over 20 times more likely to see 40°C heat than it was in the 1960s, the Met Office warned today.
Jim Dale, a forecaster who founded British Weather Services, told Metro the rising risk of heatwaves is obvious just from the weather so far in 2025.
The driest spring on record, with drought conditions already seen in some areas, has given way to a sunny start to summer that shows no sign of easing.
‘We may well see 40°C again before we get to the end of the month,’ he said, with the caveat that it’s still far enough away for weather models to have a wide margin of error.
Dr Gillian Kay, lead author of a Met Office study into heatwaves, said: ‘Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance [of 40°C heat] to keep rising.
‘We estimate a 50-50 chance of seeing a 40°C day again in the next 12 years.
‘We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today’s climate.’
She warned that the UK must ‘prepare for even higher heat extremes in the near future’.
When UK temperatures went over 40° for the first time that year, it was seen as a shocking outlier.
People camped out wherever they could find air conditioning, as London’s fire brigade had its busiest day since World War Two.
But this type of heatwave may be something we UK residents have to get used to, with models showing the likelihood is shooting up.
Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office Science Fellow and study co-author, said: ‘The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28°C, which is a key heatwave threshold in southeast England.
‘Our study finds that in today’s climate such conditions could persist for a month or more.’
If you thought the current UK heatwave was sweltering, there is worse to come, that might even have you looking at flights to Finland.
The US National Weather Service’s GFS weather model shows another blast of hot air coming our way at the end of June.
Mr Dale said it’s not normal to be having such hot weather so early on: ‘June isn’t the hottest month of the year – it never is. July and August are.’
He said dry conditions early in the year have made hot conditions more likely.
Warmer weather has led to the North Sea, Irish Sea and English Channel being warmer too, meaning when wind blows over the water it has less of a cooling effect.
Mr Dale pointed out that other countries have also been experiencing record heat.
Temperatures were expected to be over 40°C in southern Spain today, and some stations recorded over 42°C last week.
The Middle East, Asia, and North Africa are all ‘going through their June records, if not all time records,’ Mr Dale said.
‘We’re surrounded by all this heat, so it was almost inevitable we would get into an airstream that would deliver the same for us. Hey presto, it’s doing that now and will do so for the next four or five days.’
The reason for the increased heat is ‘climate change, without a shadow of a doubt,’ he said.
‘It’s what is written on the can of climate change: swapping from wet times in winter, to dry times in summer, and droughts etc.’
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
For more stories like this, check our news page.