Top economist warns America is heading toward economic disaster the Fed can't fix
Euro Pacific Asset Management Chief Economist Peter Schiff voiced some criticism of the Federal Reserve and sounded the alarm about the economy during an appearance Wednesday on "The Claman Countdown."
Schiff’s comments on the show came not long after the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) wrapped up its latest meeting in the afternoon, electing to keep the central bank’s benchmark interest rate at its current level.
Federal Reserve Chain Jerome Powell subsequently gave remarks to the media about the decision.
Schiff told host Liz Claman the "biggest takeaway is that Powell basically admitted that they have no idea what’s going to happen."
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"They don’t really know what’s going to happen to consumer prices. They don’t know what’s going to happen to employment," Schiff argued. "I don’t even think their forecasts are educated guesses so much as wishful thinking."
The benchmark federal funds rate will stay at a current range of 4.25% to 4.5% after the Fed’s latest decision.
FOMC policymakers also released a summary of economic projections, known as the so-called "dot plot," which showed members anticipate two interest rate cuts in 2025, followed by one cut each in 2026 and 2027.
They also project PCE inflation will rise to 3% this year before declining to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% the following year. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is seen as slowing to 1.4% in 2025 before growth picks up to 1.6% next year and 1.8% in 2027. Unemployment is seen as rising to 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, before dipping to 4.4% in 2027.
Schiff said he thought inflation will be "a lot higher" than the Fed expects and that the U.S. economy will be "a lot weaker."
He acknowledged the Fed "brought their inflation forecast up a bit" for the near-term and "their growth forecast down" but added that such changes weren’t "big enough."
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According to Schiff, the "big problem" for inflation is "all of the inflation chickens that the Fed has been releasing for more than a decade are coming home to roost" rather than the Trump administration’s recent spate of tariffs on imports from foreign countries.
"We have a lot of dollars sloshing around the world thanks to years and years of artificially low interest rates and quantitative easing, and more of those dollars are going to be coming home as foreigners get out of U.S. financial asset," Schiff told Claman.
"You’re seeing a global exodus out of U.S. stocks, out of U.S. bonds, and all that cash is going to come back home, bidding up prices."
Schiff predicted the U.S. will experience stagflation "with a recession and much higher inflation happening at the same time, really complicating the defense ability to try to do something about either problem."
Lower interest rates will not help the U.S. economy, he also argued, labeling them as the "cause."
"The solution involves much higher interest rates," he said. "Now, I understand that’s going to be very painful, given the economy that we’ve created, built on a foundation of cheap money."
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"It means stock prices come down, real estate prices go down, companies fail," he added. "There’s going to be bankruptcies. There’s going to be defaults. There’s going to be a protracted recession, probably a much worse financial crisis than 2008, but all that has to happen because the alternative to that is even worse."
The U.S. is on the path to "runaway inflation" that could become "hyperinflation," Schiff predicted.
The latest meeting of the FOMC was the fourth time it has gotten together this year.
The FOMC also chose not to change the rate at the three previous meetings in January, March and May.
In late May, the personal consumption expenditures Index showed a 0.1% month-over-month and a 2.1% year-over-year increase in inflation for April.
Eric Revell contributed to this report.