What we know about Iran's nuclear programme
Benjamin Netanyahu has been claiming for decades that Iran is on the brink of acquiring nuclear weapons, said Paul Nuki in The Daily Telegraph. In 2012, he even took an image of a cartoon-style bomb onto the stage of the UN General Assembly, in a bid to persuade the global community to act. Tehran ridiculed him as "the boy who cried wolf" for his constant public warnings; and his repeated threats to destroy Iran's nuclear programme became a joke to some. But on 13 June, "Mr Iran" finally authorised a major assault intended to do just that.
He claims that the Iranians are so close to developing nuclear weapons, he had to act. But analysts have cast doubt on that, said Patrick Wintour in The Guardian. As recently as March, the US director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, went on record to say that Iran was not "actively pursuing a nuclear weapon".
Still, Israel has cause to be worried, said Ed Cumming in The Daily Telegraph. Iran's nuclear programme accelerated sharply after 2018, when Donald Trump collapsed the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. That agreement limited its uranium enrichment to 3.67% – only enough for civilian nuclear power. Now it has an estimated 400kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%, which, with a bit more enrichment, could be enough to build nine nuclear bombs.
Earlier this month, the global nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years. And though Israel has killed some 14 of Iran's nuclear scientists in its strikes so far, and damaged the vital Natanz nuclear facility, the enrichment plant at Fordow "remains unscathed".
Israel can't destroy Fordow with its publicly acknowledged weapons, said John Paul Rathbone and Charles Clover in the FT. Even the US's bunker-buster bombs might struggle to damage its centrifuges, buried 500 metres under a mountain and encased in concrete. But if Fordow is not put out of action, the Iranians might withdraw from the non-proliferation treaty, and rapidly assemble a nuclear weapon while under attack.