Guardians Analysis: What's Wrong with Lane Thomas?

He's bad. Will he get good?

The Guardians need Lane Thomas to produce and he is not. Is that likely to change?

Thomas right now has a 15 wRC+ with a .146/.212/.191 slashline. In his time with Cleveland he has a 60 wRC+ with a 33.7/6.7 K/BB%. Prior to arriving in Cleveland, Thomas had a career wRC+ of 106 and a 24.2/8 K/BB%. By any measure, this is a STEEP decline.

Unfortunately, it isn't just these numbers that are the problem. Thomas was assumed to be able to hit LHP, no matter what else. Prior to coming to Cleveland, Thomas had a 138 wRC+ and an 18.7/8.9 K/BB% against LHP. With Cleveland, he has put up an 81 wRC+ and a 28.9/9.3 K/BB% against southpaws. That would be a fine split against LHP for Kyle Manzardo; it is not for right-handed hitting Thomas.

So, what is wrong? In looking at underlying metrics, Thomas's bat speed is steady, his sprint speed (despite plantar fascitis) is still strong, and he is still taking walks at a reasonable rate. He just simply isn’t squaring anything up, declining from a 75th percentile rate to 18th percentile squaring up a baseball. His hard-hit rate is about 20% below his career norm and his average exit velocity is down about 4 mph from his career median. He also has a career high 11.3% swinging strike rate, mostly missing pitches in the zone (6% down from his career averages for in-zone contact). He is 7.9 runs above average against fastballs for his career but -2.4 runs against them this year and his 6.9 runs above average performance against sliders for his career has slid to -2.8 runs against them in 2025.

All of this doesn’t look like a player who is hurt, nor does it look like a player who has lost his eye at the plate. It looks like a player who just isn't doing damage when he gets pitches to hit.

This might change. Thomas might find his way back to squaring up baseballs and making better contact. He also might not. What would make sense is for the Guardians to limit Thomas's starts to games against left-handed starters and let Nolan Jones handle centerfield duties (and, preferably Chase DeLauter right field duties) against RHP, at least until Thomas shows the ability to consistently hit balls hard again.

The temptation is going to be to stick with Thomas every day until he figures it out because chances are, as a veteran, he eventually will. This is currently Stephen Vogt's mindset as he refuses to pinch-hit for Thomas against tough right-handers for the time being. I would like to suggest that this mindset needs to change. Thomas is not part of the longterm plans for this club (good call not extending him, Antonetti!), so the only reason to continue with this everyday plan is to increase his trade value... and that is fool's gold. Thomas's value to any other team will be as a lefty masher... let him figure it out there if he can and he will help both the team, himself, and his trade value. The Guardians need to limit Thomas's appearances against right-handers to as close to little as possible as they push for a wildcard, and they need to give their best hitters the most at-bats possible as they try to climb out of an awful offensive stretch. That means more Jones, Kyle Manzardo and Daniel Schneemann against RHP AND LHP. And, yes, calling up Chase DeLauter... and CJ Kayfus when the time is right.

I will always be grateful for Lane Thomas winning us the series against the Tigers last fall, especially his grand slam off Tarik Skubal. I would make the trade to get him again if given the chance for that moment alone. Now, however, it is time to acknowledge that Thomas may have hit an aging cliff unexpectedly and scale back his playing time, letting him try to prove he is still a useful hitter vs LHP only for the time being. The team's game results will struggle until this change in strategy takes place.