Series Preview: Mets Look to Right Ship Against Braves

So, that sucked. To put it lightly.

In just over a week, the New York Mets have hit the skids. In two critical matchups against the Braves and Phillies, the Mets proceeded to lose five of six games. As a result, they saw their lead in the NL East completely evaporate; New York now trails the Phillies by one game.

How did this happen? A key reason was that the Mets experienced regression in several key areas simultaneously. The bottom of the lineup struggled, RISP issues persisted, and New York saw their pitching take a step back. Their starters, especially key ones like David Peterson and Clay Holmes, had some of their worst starts of the season. The bullpen, similar to the starting rotation, saw some consistent contributors falter in positions where they had succeeded early in the year. Add in more pitching injuries, questionable manager decisions, and flat-out bad luck, and you have a recipe for a losing streak.

However, these stretches are unavoidable in a baseball season. Regression can hit hard, causing teams to stumble in unforeseen ways. As a result, teams must find a way back to the surface level and weather the storm, allowing them to stay in contention and compete.

The Mets, despite their recent losses, are in a position to do just that. The roster is set for reinforcements to arrive in the coming days with the returns of Frankie Montas and Mark Vientos. Sean Manaea will follow shortly, and Jesse Winker and Brooks Raley won’t be far behind.

More importantly, though, the Mets have an opportunity to right the ship against the Braves.

After sweeping the Mets, Atlanta lost two of three games to the Miami Marlins. They are also abysmal on the road, having a 13-26 record away from Truist Park this season. New York, whether you look at the pitching matchups or the team’s home record on the season, has an opportunity to rattle off some key wins against a division rival to start the week.

To do that, the Mets will have to contend with some of the best pitching the Braves have to offer. Can they pull it off this week? We will answer that question, and more, in the latest series preview for Metsmerized Online! Follow along as we cover another series between the Braves and Mets.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: Paul Blackburn (0–1, 6.92 ERA) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (5–4, 3.26 ERA)

• Since his first appearance against the Dodgers, Paul Blackburn has not been a solid contributor to the Mets’ bullpen or starting rotation. In 13 innings pitched, Blackburn has 10 earned runs, 18 hits allowed, and has issued four walks. He only has eight strikeouts in that timeframe. Blackburn is not allowing a ton of hard contact; his barrel rate is only 6.3%, and he is allowing a low hard hit rate of 27.1%. However, his fastballs are concerning. Batters are hitting over .400 against his sinker and cutter with low whiff rates and high slugging percentages. This is preventing him from consistently using his slider as a put-away pitch despite it having an overall run value of one. In short, Blackburn needs to be much better as a pitcher. If he does not at least give New York a chance to win Monday, he will not be long for the major league roster. 
• On the other side of things is, once again, Spencer Schwellenbach. The Braves’ young ace had some issues with the Mets in his first matchup against them in 2025, allowing four runs and six hits. However, he still racked up eight strikeouts and did not take the loss, thanks to a late-game implosion from New York. On the season, Schwellenbach still has gaudy underlying statistics and the pitch mix to dominate lineups. Even with success against him last week, the Mets should be ready for a dogfight against one of the better younger pitchers in baseball to start the series.

Tuesday: Frankie Montas (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs  Spencer Strider (2–5, 3.89 ERA)

• More than any pitcher in this series, Frankie Montas poses a huge question mark. The recipient of a two-year, $34 million contract this winter, Montas suffered a lat injury in spring training and has been working his way back from it. And, to put it lightly, Montas has been brutal in the minor leagues. The veteran pitcher has allowed 26 hits, 21 earned runs, eight home runs, and issued six walks in 14.1 innings pitched. In that same period, Montas has struck out eight batters. This situation is fascinating for the Mets, particularly given their current need for starting pitching. Montas could repeat his rehab start performances in the majors, forcing New York to turn to more of their young arms in 2025. He could also, at the major league level, rediscover the form that earned him the contract for the Mets. How Montas fares will likely create a ripple effect for the Mets in their rotation, and the level at which he performs will likely determine the size of that ripple.
• For the Braves, Chris Sale‘s injury has pushed up Spencer Strider one day in the rotation. In his start last week against the Mets, Strider only allowed one run and struck out eight batters over six innings. The 26-year-old is showing why he is one of the best pitchers in the league, even with his fastball velocity losing a tick from where it was before. Strider has struggled a bit away from the Braves’ home ballpark (0-4, 4.50 ERA), something that could provide the Mets an opening for success. To succeed in chasing Strider, though, the Mets will have to get to him early in Tuesday’s game.

Wednesday: Clay Holmes (7-4, 3.04 ERA)  vs. Didier Fuentes (0–1, 7.20 ERA)

• In game three of this series, the Mets will need Clay Holmes to have a rebound performance. Against the Braves on June 19, Holmes walked six batters, allowed three runs, and struck out five batters in 4.2 innings. His stuff and pitch mix are still capable of getting outs at a high level. However, the walks are a serious issue that can kneecap Holmes’ effectiveness and ability to go deep into games. Holmes has all of the tools to be a major contributor for the Mets and has the potential to deliver a good start against Atlanta. If he cannot fix the command and walks, though, the Mets could be in trouble and will likely have to tax their bullpen again. 
• Atlanta is set to send out its tenth-best prospect against the Mets on Wednesday evening. In his first career start against the Miami Marlins, Didier Fuentes gave up four runs and six hits, striking out three in five innings of work. He has a solid fastball that is part of a three-pitch mix, which also has a sweeper and a curveball. Out of all of the games in this series, Fuentes offers the best matchup for the Mets, and they will need to capitalize on the growing pains that he will likely experience on the mound.

Thursday: Griffin Canning (7–3, 3.91 ERA) vs. Grant Holmes (4–6, 3.71 ERA) 

• Despite not having his best stuff against the Phillies, Griffin Canning pulled out a win in five innings of work. He struck out four batters but also walked two batters and had three earned runs. Canning, despite his recent struggles, still has two plus-pitches in his changeup and curveball (run value of five and two, respectively). However, Canning’s fastball and slider have not been good, and his command has been shaky in June. New York does not need superstardom from Canning but rather consistency. If he can deliver six solid innings, the Mets will be in a great position to win on Thursday.
• To close out the series, the Braves will deploy the up-and-down Grant Holmes. On the good side of things, Holmes can strike batters out with ease. Running a 27.6% strikeout rate so far this season, Holmes has struck out nine batters and 15 batters in two of his last three starts. On the other hand, Holmes is running a very high barrel rate (12.2%), hard-hit rate (43.7%), and average exit velocity (90.8 mph). Holmes has a very good chance to mow down batters on Thursday; however, he also could make things easy on the Mets with shaky control and center-cut pitches. As a result, it will be very fascinating to see how Holmes finishes out this series for the Braves.

The Main Headline

For this week’s series, the main headline could be many different things. It would be very easy to jump at some very easytalking points, ranging from the status of the bullpen, the layout of the starting rotation, and who will form the bottom of the Mets’ lineup. 

However, I am going to keep it simple: I want to see how the Mets respond to true adversity.

New York has already had minor ups and downs this season. And, more often than not, the Mets have been on cruise control in 2025. Their lineup has produced when needed, their starting pitching has been impressive, and their bullpen has been lockdown. For the first time all season, plenty of things have gone wrong all at once. For once, the cruise control option has not been available.

One could view this current period of the season as a test. Who will step up to the plate, figuratively and literally, and help get the ship back on course? Who will not wilt under adversity and firmly establish themselves as key cogs for a title contender?

This series against the Braves provides a perfect opportunity to see the mettle of New York’s roster and offer a first glimpse into how certain players can perform in “high-stakes” situations. It is nowhere near an exact science to try to extrapolate potential postseason success from a June series. But, it can lay the foundation for individual and team performances; for that reason, this is my headline of the week.

Prediction

In their series against the Braves, I see the Mets taking two of four games, earning a split. Clay Holmes will go seven innings and earn the win in his start, bouncing back from a rough outing. Pete Alonso will go yard once again, as will returning third baseman Mark Vientos. I also see Jeff McNeil tallying three or more hits in the series. 

After this series, I have the Mets at 48-34 heading into a weekend series against the Pirates.

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