US could default on its debt between August and early October, analysis finds

The federal government risks defaulting on its debt sometime this summer or early fall without congressional action to address its debt ceiling, a new analysis finds.

The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) projected the so-called “X-Date” will “most likely occur between August 15 and October 3” if Congress fails to act.

“Congress must address the debt limit ahead of the August recess,” Margaret Spellings, president and CEO of the Bipartisan Policy Center, said in a statement on Wednesday. “With so many Americans worried about their own budgets and the state of the economy, Congress can’t afford to inject any additional uncertainty into the mix.”

“They need to act soon to prioritize our nation’s financial stability and reassure global markets that we take this responsibility seriously,” Spellings added.

While it’s difficult to pinpoint a hard X-Date, projections become more precise the closer the government arrives to running out of cash. 

The debt limit, which caps how much money the Treasury can owe to pay the country’s bills, was last suspended in 2023 as part of a bipartisan deal that staved off the threat of national default through early 2025.

The national debt stands at more than $36 trillion.

The Treasury Department has been implementing “extraordinary measures” to buy time for Congress to address the debt ceiling.

The recent estimate released Wednesday is in line with the latest estimate from the Congressional Budget Office dropped earlier this month that predicted “the government’s ability to borrow using extraordinary measures would probably be exhausted between mid-August and the end of September 2025.”

The projected timelines have been pushed back compared to previous estimates from earlier this year.

In their projection on Wednesday, the BPC cited “stronger-than-expected tax revenue in April,” along with “steady quarterly tax revenues this month and a relatively stable economy” as key factors in Congress being afforded more time to address the nation’s debt ceiling. 

“As of June 18, Treasury had $384 billion in cash on hand and $89 billion in extraordinary measures — legally permitted accounting maneuvers — remaining to finance government operations,” the think tank said Wednesday.

“If shortfalls in July and August are larger than expected, there would be a heightened X Date risk in the second half of August or early September, ahead of the September 15 due date for quarterly tax collections,” it added.

Congressional Republicans are looking to address the debt ceiling as part of a broader package to advance key parts of President Trump’s tax agenda, which is estimated to add trillions of dollars to the nation’s deficits in the coming years.