Labour's Welfare Reforms Will Push 150,000 Into Poverty, Government Admits
Labour’s welfare reforms will push an extra 150,000 people into poverty by the end of the decade, according to official government analysis.
The figures come despite a backbench rebellion forcing Keir Starmer to water down his original plan to cut personal independence payments (PIP) and universal credit.
An impact assessment into the government’s original plans published in March said they would put 250,000 people – including 50,000 children – into poverty.
Under the new government plans, those currently in receipt of PIP and universal credit would not be affected by the cuts, but future claimants would be.
A Commons vote on the reforms will take place on Tuesday, with Starmer braced for a major backbench rebellion.
Ahead of the vote, a government assessment of the new plans says: “Excluding the impact of the additional employment support, it is estimated that there will be an additional 150,000 working age adults in relative poverty after housing costs in 2030 as a result of the modelled changes to social security, compared to baseline projections.
“The impact on the number of pensioners and children in poverty is expected to be negligible.
“These latest policy changes reduce the poverty impact because existing recipients are now protected. The poverty impacts occur from potential future recipients no longer receiving the money which was assumed in the baseline projections.”
However, the government pointed out that the assessment did not take account of the extra money that will be spent on helping those with disabilities and long-term health conditions into employment.
A spokesman for Keir Starmer said the new modelling “doesn’t reflect the full picture” of what the government’s welfare reforms will do.
He said: “The poverty modelling shows the effect of these measures on poverty in isolation in 2029/30.
“Poverty modelling is subject to uncertainty. You have to look at the record levels of investment in the health and care system.”