Here’s why you should back Mexico to take home another Gold Cup crown

The U.S. men’s national team has fought to get to Sunday’s final. But against mighty Mexico, the Americans need a lot more if they plan to win

On Thursday, Mexico forward Raúl Jiménez told a group of reporters that when it comes to Sunday’s Gold Cup title game in Houston (7 p.m., FOX) while he respects the United States’ men’s national team, at the end of the day, “finals are there to be won.”

And despite a pristine record in the group stage and besting both Costa Rica and Guatemala on its way to going after what would be its eighth Gold Cup crown, when paired against Mexico, the U.S. is a squad that looks like its time might’ve run out.

Statistically, the Americans are well-matched against Mexico, with midfielders like Diego Luna and Malik Tillman leading the way with three goals apiece, none more exciting than Luna’s brace in the semifinal that turned him into an overnight sensation.

But this game is going to come down to how well the U.S. can respond defensively to a Mexico attack spearheaded by César Montes, who also enters with three goals in this tournament and was instrumental in Mexico entering the match as well with an unblemished record (4-0-1).

Also El Tri enter the match with an all-time edge over American squads both in this tournament and in all-time meetings that frankly have boasted better U.S. rosters than this one.

With that said, it’s anyone’s guess but here’s why backing Mexico isn’t a bad one.

Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images

Scouting Mexico

Here’s a stat for you: The U.S. has played its neighbors to the South 79 times with Mexico celebrating a win 38 times, scoring over 150 goals in that span. Head coach Javier Aguirre would love to extend it to 39, marking his return with another Gold Cup win for his nation since he last took the team to the final, and won it, in 2009.

And then there’s also world renowned goalkeeper Guillermo “Memo” Ochoa, who despite not playing many minutes, has been a motivator on the sidelines and has been apart of many of those championships. This will be the 12th Gold Cup final for the Mexicans, and although the U.S. has appeared in more (13), it’s been Mexico who have walked away with the trophy more times.

Best bets

How you wager on this one depends on how much fun you want to have. Right now, the line on Fanduel has it +145 in favor of El Tri, but there’s a teasing five-leg same game parlay that has the U.S. as the moneyline, a first half that goes scoreless, Tillman to bag a goal, both teams getting on the board eventually and an over/under of 3.5 goals. At +2185, it’s hard to pass up.

Also, 2-1 as the correct score is at +1100, but should this one go in to extras, consider 1-1 at +500 and hope for a thrilling shootout.

Fanduel is offering a bit more incentive too with its No Sweat Bet on any wager in this game and they’re also offering a 30% profit boost for those who opt-in prior to making their wager.

Prediction

We’ve predicted every U.S. match in this race and have only come up small once, after we thought their luck would run out against Costa Rica, before goalkeeper Matt Freese would provide the luck the Americans needed in the shootout. However, Mexico despite being one of the youngest El Tri rosters in recent memory are good and technical enough to thwart the Americans and capture another crown. We’re taking Mexico to win, 2-1 — in a shootout.